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The Longest Weekend: Week Fifteen Picks

12/18/2021

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San Francisco can beat any team when George Kittle is healthy; rookie Kyle Pitts has the talent to be a great TE.



This week, as North America (and dozens of countries on other continents) is awash with the new virulent variant of COVID known as Omicron, the NFL has been dealing with its own outbreak, as they average somewhere in the neighbourhood of 30 positive tests per day.

As of this writing, three games have been postponed, as they each involve a team (Cleveland, LA Rams, Washington) that has at least 20 players on the COVID list. The second scheduled Saturday game of the season is now the first, there are four games scheduled AFTER Sunday, and a week that began on Thursday will last AT LEAST until Tuesday.

Welcome to Week Fifteen!

Whoever you are, wherever you are, I hope you are vaxxed and safe. Myself, I don't need my government or anyone else to tell me to lock down, as I have been doing the same things and taking the same precautions for almost two years now.

If you go out, wear a mask, and be careful. If you feel sick, get tested. Don't listen to Fox News, Joe Rogan, Aaron Rodgers, or any other idiots out there. Neither they, nor you, are an expert, nor are you invincible. You are not a horse, and you're not special.

COVID DOESN'T CARE!

Oh, and if you live in Los Angeles, it's not because you're cold, no matter what that moron Joe Buck says.

​

LISTEN: Donald Parham Jr. is at the hospital with a brain/spine injury. Joe Buck says he'd never speculate on an injury, then speculates DP's arm tremors were bc "it's cold tonight, at least by Los Angeles standards."

Ladies and gents, meet rock bottom for sports broadcasting. pic.twitter.com/s3RbdE0ouO

— Chris Nowinski, Ph.D. (@ChrisNowinski1) December 17, 2021


​Week Fifteen Picks
 
Winners in Bold:
 
 
 
Saturday
 
 
New England at Indianapolis
 
Well, at least we get to kick off the weekend with a game between two well-matched opponents, with playoff implications for both, and with only one COVID scratch between them. New England is at a slight disadvantage due to RB Damien Harris being ruled Out with a hammy, but rookie Rhamondre Stevenson is a beast, and the Pats have depth at the position. Indy has their own star RB, Johnathan Taylor, who will be the first priority of the Pats defense. This game will likely come down to which QB performs more efficiently and mistake-free. This has all the makings of a good game.
 
 
 
 
Sunday
 
 
Dallas at New York G
 
Even with Dallas’s offense struggling somewhat, Mike Glennon vs. Dallas’s defense is too much of a mismatch.
 
 
Houston at Jacksonville
 
A game between a couple of losers, in which winner loses draft position. That’s fitting, somehow. I’m leaning towards Jacksonville, because I suspect that the players and coaches are feeling pretty good since Urban Meyer got canned.
 
 
Tennessee at Pittsburgh
 
Two more teams that have been only mildly afflicted by the recent COVID outbreak (didn’t all the Tennessee players get COVID last season?). Tennessee is still far-removed from fielding their optimum offense, but Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t really all that frightening. I think Tennessee wins a low-scoring slog.
 
 
New York J at Miami
 
With three players on the COVID list, including breakout rookie WR Jaylen Waddle, I’d be worried about Miami’s chances this week if they were playing almost any other team. New York is terrible, banged-up on the OL, and has five players of their own on the COVID list.
 
 
Arizona at Detroit
 
Arizona is dealing with a lot of injuries right now, but they’re playing Detroit, and they’re both bad and loaded with injuries as well.
 
 
Carolina at Buffalo
 
Buffalo can’t afford to take anything for granted at this point. Fortunately for them, Carolina’s offense is so terrible that this game should be a horrible mismatch.
 
 
Cincinnati at Denver
 
Cincy lost a heartbreaker last week in OT, due in no small part to some gutless/nutless coaching. They’re pretty banged-up this week, but so is Denver. I like Joe Burrow more than Teddy Bridgewater in a shootout, which is what this game has the potential to turn into.
 
 
Atlanta at San Francisco
 
The hardest part about picking San Fran games is that I can never be sure about George Kittle’s availability. Healthy, Kittle is the absolute, bar-none, best TE in the league, and the combination of him being the team’s best receiver AND a punishing blocker in the run game makes him utterly indispensable to San Fran’s offensive identity. Right now, he’s healthy.
 
 
Green Bay at Baltimore
 
Everyone seems to be talking about how good Green Bay is right now. Baltimore’s success hinges almost entirely on having a unique, game-wrecking QB (when he’s healthy), and the game’s best kicker (by a country mile). Green Bay should win easily, right? Let’s see.
 
 
 
Sunday Night
 
 
New Orleans at Tampa
 
If they remain focused, there is absolutely no way Tampa should lose to a team QBed by Taysom Hill. No way.
 
 
 
Monday
 
 
Las Vegas at Cleveland
 
I, and I’m sure many others, have no idea what to make of this game. Vegas looks done. Cleveland, on the other hand, has something like 20 players on the COVID list, including both Baker Mayfield AND Case Keenum, plus several other key players. On top of that, Kareem Hunt is Out with an ankle injury.
 
 
Minnesota at Chicago
 
In case I was tempted to pick Chicago in an upset (I wasn’t), the slew of players Chicago has on the COVID list would have definitely knocked some sense into me.
 
 
 
Tuesday
 
 
Seattle at Los Angeles R
 
Another difficult pick. Postponed until Tuesday; Seattle loaded with injuries and Tyler Lockett on the COVID list; LA with a whopping 23 on the COVID list. If it’s up to the QBs to win this with little help, I don’t know how you pick against Russell Wilson.
 
 
Washington at Philadelphia
 
Another game postponed until Tuesday. Philly’s frisky rushing attack vs. Washington’s 23 players on the COVID list seems like a no-brainer to me.

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Rest, and The Rest: Week Fifteen Thursday Night Quick Pick

12/16/2021

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The two most important defensive players on each team; one of LA's is playing hurt, and one of KC's isn't playing at all.



Thursday, December 16th

KC FT at Los Angeles Bolts


Omicron has entered the chat.

It's a shame that such an important game, between division rivals no less, is taking place on a Thursday Night, with most of the players playing on short rest, and after already playing thirteen gruelling games in fourteen weeks. Add in another COVID outbreak (the league recorded over 100 positive tests over a three-day period), and you're looking at a game that is severely compromised from a quality and talent standpoint.

Key players from both teams will not be available for tonight's game due to COVID, while others will be limited by injuries. The Bolts will be without starting LT Rashawn Slater, while their most important defensive player, S Derwin James, is hampered by a hamstring injury. RB Austin Ekeler (ankle) and CB Asante Samuel, Jr. (concussion), are also nicked-up. On the other side, a KC defense which has keyed the club's current six-game win streak will be without three starters; DL Chris Jones and LB Willie Gay, both due to COVID, and CB LaJarius Sneed, due to the recent murder of his brother.

Much of the media coverage surrounding this game is about the matchup between ultra-talented QBs Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Both have strong supporting casts. In the case of the Bolts, COVID has provided a gift, as WR Keenan Allen will play tonight, making him the most-rested star in the game after missing Sunday's game due to COVID.

One of the keys to KC's defensive resurgence has been its ability to win the battle at the line of scrimmage. Without Jones, their most disruptive player, Justin Herbert will likely have an easier time going through his progressions in order to make good choices. KC will need a strong effort from its offense, something they haven't been able to rely on consistently.

Regardless of who's playing, how hurt they are, and how tired, this is still an important game. In a game with these challenges, it's up to the coaches and players to adjust to what's not available, and make due with the rest.

Winner: Los Angeles
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Accountability and Availability: Week Fourteen Picks

12/12/2021

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Cancer survivor Ron Rivera, and star WR Stefon Diggs put their team first.

Ron Rivera speaks out against COVID vaccine misinformation. pic.twitter.com/h8tWHHeHCN

— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) August 16, 2021



​Week Fourteen Picks
 
Winners in Bold
 
 
 
Dallas at Washington
 
Before the season began, Ron Rivera, in an effort to educate his players and assuage any concerns they might have regarding the COVID vaccine, brought in renowned immunologist Dr. Kizzmekia S. Corbett to speak with the team and answer any questions they might have. Rivera, a players’ coach, wanted what was best for the team. He was also likely motivated by the fact that he is a cancer survivor.
 
Despite Rivera’s and Dr. Corbett’s efforts, DE Montez Sweat decided not to get the vaccine. At the time, he stated, among other inanities, “I probably won’t get vaccinated until I get more facts and that stuff.”
 
What the actual fuck?!?
 
I guess a highly respected immunologist couldn’t provide enough “facts and stuff.” No, this is nothing but pure, childish, oppositional selfishness. He’s essentially saying, “I don’t want to, and you can’t make me.”
 
Washington stumbled to a 2-6 start while struggling through injuries and inconsistent play. Since their bye, they’ve won four straight, improving to 6-6, and placing themselves in the thick of the playoff hunt. Sweat, a talented defender, hasn’t played since Week 8, after suffering a broken jaw. The team was looking forward to getting him back on the field for this week’s huge matchup against bitter rival Dallas.
 
Of course, that won’t be happening. Montez Sweat has COVID.
 
Well, they’ve won four straight without him, so maybe they’re better off if the selfish asshole stays home.
 
 
Jacksonville at Tennessee
 
It’s been a strange season for Tennessee. Their powerhouse offense never materialized due to injuries. They’ve beaten the likes of Buffalo, the Rams, and KC, but have lost to the Jets and Houston. And yet, there they sit at 8-4, about to square off with the dreadful Jags. Because of Indianapolis’s brutal remaining schedule, Tennessee is probably going to hang on and win the division, after which, I expect that they’ll be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
 
 
Seattle at Houston
 
Russell Wilson looked much better in his previous start. Houston is Houston.
 
 
Las Vegas at KC
 
I’m sorely tempted to pick Vegas here, but Darren Waller is Out, and KC has some guys who can get pressure on Derek Carr.
 
 
NO at New York J
 
NO still has some injury issues on the OL, and Taysom Hill isn’t really a good option as a starting QB. Alvin Kamara is expected to play, and it will be interesting to see how he looks after being out for a while. New York might be able to keep this one close, and an upset wouldn’t surprise me.
 
 
Atlanta at Carolina
 
My Matt Ryan watch continues, as I hope that this will be his last season in Atlanta. It’s hard to know what to expect out of Carolina’s offense, but their defense can rush the passer, and that spells trouble for Ryan.
 
 
Baltimore at Cleveland
 
Last time these teams played each other, I picked Cleveland, thinking that their running game would batter the banged-up Baltimoreans into submission. In that game, Cleveland’s offense, particularly Baker Mayfield, laid an egg. This time around, Cleveland is at home, Baltimore is even more banged-up, and damn it all to hell, I feel the same way as I did last time.
 
 
New York G at Los Angeles Bolts
 
With Keenan Allen Out due to COVID, I’d be tempted to pick the G-Men. Except that the G-Men are starting a G-Man at QB, Mike Glennon. Glennon, I’m told, has a pulse.
 
 
Detroit at Denver
 
Detroit finally notched a W last week, so they must be feeling pretty good about themselves. They should try and hold on to that feeling.
 
 
San Francisco at Cincinnati
 
Last I checked, San Fran were slight favourites in this game, which is just unbelievably disrespectful to Cincy.
 
 
Buffalo at Tampa
 
A mere ten months ago, Buffalo played in the AFC Championship game, and looked poised to rule the AFC East for years with a young star QB, a stacked team, and the Pats’ dynasty seemingly over. This week, they face their old nemesis Tom Brady and the defending champs, in a game that could end with Buffalo sitting two games behind New England in the AFC East with only four games to play.
 
What happened?
 
Before the season began, Sean McDermott expressed frustration that some of his players, most notably Cole Beasley, were refusing to get vaccinated against COVID. McDermott, Stefon Diggs, and others tried to convince Beasley, but “Hillbilly Edelman” wouldn’t budge.
 
All season, Buffalo has been inconsistent, undisciplined, sloppy. Josh Allen has regressed back to his wild beginnings. McDermott is at his wits’ end.
 
If you ask me, I say Beasley has divided the team. They came close last season, and the expectation was that they would go harder in order to complete their mission this season. Beasley’s stubborn, selfish stupidity has been the catalyst of an undercurrent of disunity within the team.
 
 
 
Sunday Night
 
 
Chicago at Green Bay
 
Even a banged-up Green Bay squad should have little difficulty beating Chicago.
 
 
 
Monday Night
 
 
Los Angeles R at Arizona
 
Arizona won the first matchup between these two division rivals. Arizona looks like the real deal. LA looks suspect to me.

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Dumb and Bummer: Week Fourteen Thursday Night Quick Pick

12/9/2021

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Picture
Kirk Cousins, trying to remember which hand he throws with; Roethlisberger has been as accurate as a broken clock this season.



Thursday, December 9th

Pittsburgh at Minnesota


Doesn't it seem like Minnesota should have a better record than Pittsburgh? Kirk Cousins, despite his staggering lack of intelligence, has played like a top ten QB all season, while Ben Roethlisberger has been among the worst. Nevertheless, Pittsburgh has managed to eke out six wins against some bad teams, some injured teams, and whatever-the-fuck Buffalo was in Week One. Meanwhile, Minnesota has spent the season torturing their fans on a weekly basis (which is SOOOO Minnesota), winning four and losing seven one-score games (they beat Seattle 30-17 in Week Three).

Both teams need this game to improve their place in the playoff hunt. Minnesota has the edge on offense, Pittsburgh, on defense. Adam Thielen is Out, but so is Joe Haden. This is the type of game that Mike Tomlin's crew usually wins, and the type that any Minnesota team generally loses. The choice, for me, is clear.

Winner: Minnesota
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