Well, folks, here we are at the end of the line, and like a great team heading towards championship glory, I’ve gained strength as the playoffs have progressed. I was 2-2 in the first week, 3-1 in the second, and a spotless 2-0 on Championship Sunday, boldly predicting that both two-seeds would advance. Now all that’s left is to make one more pick.
 
Before I do that, I just have some leftover thoughts after the two conference championship games, now that everyone has mostly moved on to obsessing about the most miniscule minutiae of anything and everything relating to the two teams in this year’s ultimate contest.
 
A lot has been said about the controversial ending to the LA/NO game. It absolutely was pass interference, it should have been called, and had it been called, the game most likely would have ended differently. The official blew it. Now, having said that, let me add that this was one of the worst-officiated games I’ve seen all season. Further, I would argue that the majority of the bad calls/no-calls went against LA, including a couple that extended New Orleans scoring drives (play clock!!!). Part of the reason that the horrendous call at the end of the game received so much attention is the timing. If you’re being realistic, though, a bad call is a bad call, and any officiating mistake that results in points scored or points prevented is a seriously game-altering call, no matter when it occurs. I don’t want to hear anyone talking about the illegitimacy of this year’s big game because of one blown call. If you want to be that nitpicky, then follow this chain of events:
​

• Chicago should have beaten Philadelphia, but double-doink
• Philadelphia could have beaten New Orleans, if Alshon Jeffrey makes a catch he’s probably made hundreds of times before
• New Orleans would have beaten LA, but…

 
New Orleans still had a chance to win the game. They just didn’t. Just like Philadelphia didn’t beat them, and just like Chicago didn’t beat Philadelphia. We might as well call the NFC the Conference of Illegitimacy. Should'a, could'a, would'a.
 
Bye, bye for this season, Patrick Mahomes. Your play, attitude, and perseverance will be missed. The KC fans, not so much. What a bunch of losers. I’ve already talked about their charming racist chants and chops, which I and every other decent person should abhor. During the playoffs, though, the KC faithful really outdid themselves. Not only did the boorish, choreographed, bigotry continue unabated, but some of these useless, racist-cosplaying losers decided to up the ante by interfering in the games, first by throwing snow at Indianapolis players, then by trying to blind New England players with laser pointers. Crap like this has no place at a sporting event or anywhere else in civilized society.
 
(And as an aside, my wife is glad that Andy Reid is out of the playoffs because she said she couldn’t stop thinking about the poor baby oysters.)

Sunday, February 3rd, 2019
 
The Big Game (Version LIII.0)
 
New England at Los Angeles (in Atlanta)
 
There’s not much left that I could say about New England that I haven’t already said. Everyone knows how their offense works, and the way Tom Brady and Co. have been playing lately, it’s pretty tough to stop. Whatever a defence might do well isn’t particularly effective against the Pats’ offence because everything happens so quickly and precisely. New England’s defence has been effective because its deep, experienced, and talented secondary has excelled (especially Stephon Gilmore), its LBs have played well (Kyle Van Noy has been a standout), and they consistently sub in fresh bodies on the DL. Also, New England has shown a lot of creativity in getting pressure on opposing QBs, employing DBs and LBs to great effect.
 
Of course, I’m not saying that LA doesn’t have a chance; that would be ludicrous. Their OL is tremendous, they have two excellent RBs, and plenty of receiving talent (especially Brandin Cooks, a premier route-runner and dangerous field-stretcher). LA has plenty of offence to compete with anyone.  My biggest concern would be Jared Goff, who is talented, but has shown a tendency to fold under extreme pressure. Where the game will be won or lost for LA is on defence. We all know what Aaron Donald can do; his combination of strength and technique is incredibly difficult to handle. I believe that if LA is willing to commit its LBs and DBs to a consistent plan of taking away Brady’s short and intermediate passing lanes, and if Donald and the rest of the DL can consistently penetrate the Pats’ backfield, they have a real shot. Sure, there’s a risk of giving up some big plays, but the New England doesn’t beat you with big plays; they beat you with long drives, tiring out your defence, keeping your offence off the field, and keeping their defence fresher.
 
When it comes right down to it, it’s hard to go against the precision and execution that Belichick and his exemplary coaching staff consistently get from the team in big games, with clutch guys like Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Don’t’a Hightower, James White, Julian Edelman, and old man Brady leading the way. Winner: New England
 


​We have the makings of a really good game here. Whatever happens, I hope it’s competitive, clean, and that the officiating is good. Nothing takes me out of a game more that bad officiating.
 
So, have fun, and enjoy the game.
 
And thanks for reading.

Championship Sunday. We’ve got two great matchups on tap to determine which two teams get to meet in Atlanta in two weeks for the big game. I think we have the makings of two exciting games this weekend, and no matter who wins, we’ll end up with another good game in two weeks.
 
Just consider the QB story for the big game in Atlanta. Will it be a battle of two all-time greats, a youth vs. experience showdown, or a showcase for two bright young stars? Considering the quality of the individuals involved, you can’t complain.
 
For the city of Atlanta, the thought of seeing division rival New Orleans or the heart-stealing Pats crowned champs must be horrifying. Atlantans would most likely prefer an LA-KC tilt, a rematch of the much-ballyhooed orgy of scoring from Week 11.
 
I say, whatever we get should be good, but first we have to get through the last of the preliminaries. I’m very much looking forward to seeing these two games. I’m also hoping that I actually get to see them, as we are expecting a huge storm on Sunday, and I fear a power outage.
 
So, fingers crossed that we get a couple of good games on Sunday, and fingers crossed that the power stays on. Wherever you are, have fun, and be safe.
 
 

​N-Conference
LAR at New Orleans
 
I said it last week, and I’ll say it again: Aqib Talib is a big key to the outcome of this game. LA has to find a way to limit the production of Michael Thomas. Thomas has been an absolute game-wrecker all season, and he was in peak form last week. If Talib can go one-on-one for most of the game, either against Thomas or another receiver, allowing LA to double-cover Thomas, and if LA’s DL can get pressure on Brees quickly, New Orleans will be somewhat limited in what they can accomplish offensively. With CJ Anderson, running as well as he has been, in tandem with Todd Gurley, LA’s offence is playing at its highest level since the loss of Cooper Kupp. I’m a bit worried about Jared Goff playing in this hostile, loud playoff environment, but if he holds up, I like LA’s chances a lot. Winner: LAR
 
 
 
A-Conference
New England at Kansas City
 
I think we all know what to expect from KC, rightfully favoured in this contest despite having lost to New England this season. Patrick Mahomes is amazing, the offence is built to score points quickly, and the defence lives and dies with its pass rush. When you have a team playing as well as KC is, and you beat yourself like Indy did last week, well, you end up getting drubbed. Bill Belichick’s Pats teams don’t typically beat themselves. But can they beat KC in KC?
 
I don’t think the Pats will have much trouble on offence. Their whole offensive identity is about nullifying pass rushers by using quick passes, effective running, and play action. The Pats will have to be especially disciplined to be effective on offense; the unforgiving noise level in KC often causes opposing offences to kill themselves with pre-snap penalties.
 
Defensively, New England has the unenviable task of stopping Travis Kelce and slowing down Tyreek Hill. Stephon Gilmore will have to be at his best, and he’s definitely up to the task. Don’t be surprised to see the Pats in dime or even quarters formations at times, with an extra Safety in specifically to help out with Kelce.
 
It will require a superlative effort for New England to outlast Kansas City in this one. I think they’re up to the challenge, and I’m looking forward to a good game. Winner: New England
​

I’m back again for another week of playoff football. And for those of you who read last week’s column and thought I’d gone soft, this week’s offering has a bit more bite.
 
As I predicted, there were upsets galore in the first week of this year’s playoffs. The LA Bolts and Indianapolis wins did not surprise me. Dallas and Dak Prescott impressed me, and Nick Foles-led Philly just refuses to lose playoff games. All in all, it made for an interesting and entertaining weekend of football. For this week, I’m expecting at least one more big upset, but I wouldn’t rule out more, as some of these underdogs looked really sharp last week, while the top teams look very beatable. For my money, this weekend’s slate looks like it has a lot to offer. So here’s hoping for more great action, and less garbage officiating like we saw in the LA/Baltimore game (early frontrunner for worst officiated game of the postseason).
 
And now, this week’s picks:
 
Saturday
 
Indianapolis at Kansas City
Patrick Mahomes is THE great story of this season. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed watching him play, his attitude is refreshing, his smile, infectious. He is, without a doubt, the MVP this season, so take your nostalgia-tour-Drew-Brees-MVP talk and shove it. Unfortunately, Mahomes plays for Kansas City, a franchise I despise. Drafting Tyreek Hill, so shortly removed as it was from the Jovan Belcher tragedy, was a prime example of an NFL team valuing athletic talent above all else. The Kareem Hunt fiasco reinforces the idea that something is seriously wrong with the culture surrounding this franchise. Racist chanting and gesturing by tens-of-thousands of racists, a staple of KC home games, is unpleasant to say the least (And I don’t want to hear weak-ass arguments like “It’s just good clean fun,” or “It’s not meant to be offensive,” or “But it’s tradition.” It’s disgusting.). Also, and this is a personal thing, I’m sick of everyone in sports media suddenly talking about Andy Reid like he’s a genius almost entirely because Mahomes has proven to be way better in only his first year as a starter than anyone could have predicted. That’s the NFL for you, though, enjoying the product always seems like making a deal with the devil for me.
 
OK. Rant over.
 
This should be a very entertaining game. Mahomes vs. Luck, two great QBs playing fantastic football, is a showdown that is not to be missed. Both of these offences are capable of piling up the yards and the points. KC will have an advantage playing at home in arguably the loudest stadium in the league. That’s where the advantages end, though. Indy’s defence is better overall than KC’s, and will give Mahomes and Co. a stiff test. Indy’s LBs in particular will be crucial in nullifying Travis Kelce. The one thing that KC does well on defence is rush the passer, but as we saw last week, Indy’s OL has little trouble handling elite pass rushers. In the end, Indy’s defence, and the running of Marlon Mack, will be the edge they need to outlast KC. Winner: Indianapolis
 

Dallas at LAR
LA loaded up on skill players in the offseason, and looked to be poised to steamroll the opposition this season. However, they’ve shown some cracks along the way, as some of those new acquisitions have underperformed. Also, and of particular concern, is the fact that Jared Goff folds like a card table when he’s pressured.
 
So, here comes Dallas.
 
Dallas has the skill, depth, and speed on defence to handle elite offensive talent, as we saw in their defeat of New Orleans. They will give LA’s offence all it can handle. Offensively, Dallas is more than capable of winning any game that their defence manages to keep close, with Ezekiel Elliot, Amari Cooper, and a talented OL.
 
They key player in this game is Aqib Talib. Healthy, he’s good enough and physical enough to neutralize Amari Cooper. However, Talib has shown a propensity towards injury this season, and if he has to leave the game for any length of time, or if Dallas finds ways to get Cooper matched up against talented but undisciplined Marcus Peters, Cooper will run wild.
 
It’ll be competitive game, but I think that LA’s offence, if it leans on Todd Gurley, will be able to do just enough to dispatch Dallas. Winner: LAR
 
 
Sunday
 
LAC at New England
We’ve been here before, haven’t we? Proud New England, coming off an up-and-down season, looking vulnerable, welcoming a seemingly superior challenger to Foxborough for a playoff tilt. Is this it for the Pats?
 
Could be. The Bolts are strong on both sides of the ball. They run the ball well. They have good receivers. Philip Rivers is playing some of the best football of his career. And their defence is deep and talented. This is a team that is built to give the Pats trouble.
 
I don’t expect quite as dominant a performance from LA’s D this week. They’re not facing the gimmicky, doomed-to-fail Baltimore offence. New England’s offence is based on planning and execution. Tom Brady will need to rely heavily on Julian Edelman, James White, and Gronk. Getting rid of the ball quickly, taking short, low-risk gains, will neutralize LA’s pass rush. Key to this will be avoiding offensive penalties; starting drives in yardage holes will lead to disaster, and the Pats have shown a lack of discipline at times this season.
 
I’m really looking forward to this game. The Pats will be ready. I know Rivers is good to go. I wonder how the rest of the Bolts’ players will respond to the pressure of a playoff game in cold Foxborough, though. It’s a tough call, but it’s hard to pick against Belichick’s squad at home. Winner: New England
 

Philadelphia at New Orleans
In last season’s playoffs, I was a perfect 0-3 picking against Philadelphia, as I’m sure many were. One week in, and I’m already 0-1 this year. I’ve about given up trying to understand how this team ticks. I only know that they’re crazy to let Nick Foles go and keep Carson Wentz. Anyway, I’m picking against them again this week, for two reasons. One, because New Orleans should beat them. Two, because I can’t stand Sean Payton or Drew Brees, and I hope that the Foles magic mixes with the cosmic magic of me picking against Philly to produce an upset. You know, quantum physics. Winner: New Orleans

So, I’m back. Did you miss me?
 
Not to make too big a thing about this, but my family suffered a loss in November. It was a difficult, painful time for me. If I’m being honest, I’m still dealing with some of the fallout. I don’t want to dwell on it here, though.
 
For a few weeks, I just wasn’t able to even think about writing. After that, I was just too busy getting caught up on other things (it doesn’t matter what you’re going through; the world simply does not stop to wait for you), and getting ready for the holidays.
 
I’ve still been following the action when I was able. In fact, football has been a great comfort to me these past several weeks. Funny story: the first night my wife and I came home after having spent many difficult hours at the hospital, and we were in that overtired state where we were exhausted but couldn’t settle down enough to sleep, we put on a Pats game we’d PVRed, just to take our minds off things.
 
Looking ahead to this weekend, we have a very interesting slate of games in store. This year, the term “Wild Card Weekend” is definitely apt, because I can honestly see any of these games going either way. None of the home teams are a lock by any means, with at least one (I’m looking at you, Dallas) the beneficiary of playing in a very weak division, while I would not be surprised if one or more of this weekend’s visiting squads made deep runs in this postseason.
 
Yes, folks, this weekend promises to be an interesting start to this year’s “second season.” So, bring on the action.
 
I’m so ready.

Here's my picks for this weekend. As you'll see, I'm not shy about picking upsets.
 
 
Saturday
 
Indianapolis at Houston
Houston is one of the division winners I predicted correctly this season. Deshaun Watson managed to stay healthy despite the peril he is regularly subjected to in dum-dum Bill O’Brien’s offence. Houston can do enough on offence and defence to give any team a run for its money. Indianapolis has some good players on defence too, and will give Watson trouble if Houston’s scheme fails to protect him like it has done all season. The key to this game for me is Andrew Luck. I’m positively astounded at how well he’s playing right now, especially considering how much he’s struggled to get back to playing at all. This should be a close one. Winner: Indianapolis
 
Seattle at Dallas
Another tricky pick between two teams which employ similar philosophies. Both Seattle and Dallas have relied on strong running and defence this season. This is likely to be a close, low-scoring affair, and as much as I like Dak Prescott, I don’t have nearly as much confidence in him with the game on the line as I do in <retch> Russell Wilson. Winner: Seattle
 
 
Sunday
 
LAC at Baltimore
Here’s a pick that shouldn’t surprise anyone. Baltimore relies on stingy defence and a gimmicky offence to win close games, and are in the playoffs (and hosting) largely due to Pittsburgh’s collapse (that was fun to type). I’ve been all-in in the Bolts since day 1. I picked them to win their division (really, no one knew just how AMAZING Mahomes would be this season). LA is the better team here. As long as they are patient, don’t fall behind early (which they seem to do whenever I’ve watched them this season), they should be able to outlast Baltimore. (Bias Alert: I hate John Harbaugh) Winner: LAC
 
Philadelphia at Chicago
Everyone wrote Philly off a few weeks ago, until dead weight Carson Wentz finally gave way to the magic of Nick Foles, and the team suddenly came alive. (Seriously, what do you think Philly could get for Wentz in a trade? A lot, I’d bet. They should seriously think about it.) In some ways, this might be the trickiest pick of all this weekend. Chicago has that great defence, and their offence has been steady-to-stellar for most of the season. Trubisky is the key here. If he plays well, Chicago is golden, but if he lays an egg in the crucible of his first playoff test, there lies trouble. Philadelphia is battle-tested, having had playoff success last season, and having struggled and survived this season. If Chicago slips, Philly will pounce. If Trubisky survives his first playoff test, Chicago will be a tough out for any team from there on. I’m really looking forward to this game. Winner: Chicago

I'm exhausted, and so too is all my time for this week. Not enough time, and no energy to do a proper full column. Hopefully next week will be better.


Week Ten Picks

Winners in Bold

Sunday

New Orleans at Cincinnati
Atlanta at Cleveland
Detroit at Chicago
Arizona at Kansas City
New England at Tennessee
Washington at Tampa
Buffalo at NYJ
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
LAC at Oakland
Seattle at LAR
Miami at Green Bay

Sunday Night

Dallas at Philadelphia

Monday Night

NYG at San Francisco

Thursday Night

Carolina at Pittsburgh

This is an intriguing offensive matchup. Both teams know how to pile up the yards and the points. Pittsburgh always seems to have an outstanding contingent of receiving options, and James Conner has proven to be more than adequate as a replacement for Le'Veon Bell at RB. The Carolina offence really seems to be hitting its stride, as Cam Newton is always a threat to take over a game, yet with the complementary pieces he has on offence now (particularly Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen), Newton can be more creative and less forced.

Watching Pittsburgh play Baltimore on Sunday, I was struck by the fact that there are easily a dozen or more QBs in the league who could have had Pittsburgh in a serious hole in the first half, but instead I was watched as Joe Flacco squandered numerous good opportunities, which took a lot of pressure off Pittsburgh's offence. Cam Newton and the Carolina offence won't hesitate to capitalize on the opportunities that Pittsburgh's defence will most certainly allow. Sure, Pittsburgh's offence will answer back, but ultimately, I think that Carolina's defence will be the deciding factor in this contest by making  enough crucial plays to swing the advantage Carolina's way.

Winner: Carolina

People who cover the NFL love to make predictions. Whether it's mock drafts or predicting the final standings, fantasy forecasts or individual awards, sportswriters, television personalities, and the like love to prognosticate.

When I make my predictions, I use the best information that I have available to me, and I put that information through the filter of my own intellect. I've had some success in the past. And looking at my preseason predictions for this year, I'm doing reasonably well, with every division winner that I predicted currently either in first or second place (including five first-place teams).

As we get ready for the rest of the Week Nine games on Sunday and Monday, I feel pretty confident about my picks for this week, and for my season picks as the 2018 NFL campaign continues. However, I know that my predictions are just that: predictions. The actual games, this weekend, and for the rest of the season, have yet to be played. And we're only at about the half-way point of the season.

Speaking of half-way points, or mid-terms if you will, this is a very important week in the United States. I've heard a lot of predictions, and I've seen a lot of polls. I'm sure you have, too. Based on these prognostications, a lot of people are really optimistic, hopeful that something really positive is going to happen. With what's been going on the past two years, who would begrudge people a little hope?

The thing is, things like what people are hoping for don't just "happen;" people have to make them happen. Just like how, in football, the better team on paper doesn't always win the game unless they put forth the effort and execute. You can't rely on predictions, or polls, or other people to do it. You have to put forth the effort, and execute.

Two years ago, what all the polls said, and what everyone thought was a foregone conclusion, turned out to be a huge upset.

Don't assume that what you want to happen will happen, just because "they" say it will.

So, enjoy the football this weekend. There are some pretty good matchups, some that I'm particularly excited about.

But on Tuesday, if you want to win, please, put forth the effort, and execute.

Vote.


That's enough of that. Let's get on with it...

Week Nine Picks

Winners in Bold

Chicago at Buffalo
To me, New England gave merely the barest effort on Monday night, knowing that Derek Anderson would not, could not beat them. In the likely event that the injured Anderson can't start this Sunday, Buffalo appears ready to turn once again, inexplicably, to Nathan Peterman. The only way that Chicago loses to Nathan Peterman is if they are, ironically, so paralyzed by the fear of losing to Nathan Peterman that they lose to Nathan Peterman.

Tampa at Carolina
Since Cincinnati is off this week, I'll use this space to congratulate/thank them for sending Jameis Winston back to the bench (and on his way to out of the league, I can only hope). I will also use this space to scold Cincinnati for letting Ryan Fitzpatrick tie the game late and costing me money (but that's another story). Fitzpatrick or no, as well as Carolina is playing right now, I can't see this one being that close.

Kansas City at Cleveland
The only curious thing about this game for me is seeing how the offence operates now that Hue Jackson (a former OC, don't forget) AND OC Todd Haley have been canned, and erstwhile pariah Gregg Williams has ascended (temporarily I'm sure, but this IS Cleveland...) to the HC slot. Cleveland will put up a fight, but KC should outgun and outlast the home team.

NYJ at Miami
Close call here, so I'm going with the home team in the warm weather.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Yeah, I know Baltimore won the first one, so Pittsburgh's supposed to win this one. Yeah, I know that Pittsburgh has been on a hot streak lately, while Baltimore has cooled off after a strong start. I still don't think Pittsburgh's defence is all that good, and I still think that Ben Roethlisberger is streaky and can get cooled off in a hurry by a good defence.

Detroit at Minnesota
Minnesota looked to be cruising against New Orleans early in their game last week. Then, after an uncharacteristic Adam Thielen fumble, they looked like a completely different team. I think Minnesota will bounce back this week against a struggling Detroit team that is still trying to find its offensive identity.

Atlanta at Washington
Atlanta is old news, right? Too banged-up on defence, no good on the road. Washington is the hot team, got it? Nope, sorry. I know I'm supposed to pick the home team here, and it's probably the smart pick, but I keep thinking that an offence that relies on Alex Smith and Adrian Peterson isn't matching a rested Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and co. score-for-score. I have to go my own way on this one.

Houston at Denver
This is another tricky one. Houston just keeps winning, Denver just keeps struggling. I'm a little worried about Desean Watson getting chased around by Von Miller, but I think tha Case Keenum has a bit more to worry about from Houston's defensive front.

LAC at Seattle
Seattle has been exceeding expectations on offence, particularly with their running game. At the beginning of the season, I would have picked LA in a walk here. I'm sticking with Rivers and the rest because I still think they're one of the better teams in the AFC, but it should be a competitive game.

LAR at New Orleans
LA struggled last week before barely beating Green Bay. New Orleans is red hot and playing at home. I know what I'm supposed to think here, but I see it differently. In spite of its struggles on defence in recent weeks, LA has the talent and they have Wade Phillips. If LA makes a concerted effort up front to limit New Orleans's running game, then I honestly believe that Drew Brees won't be able to match Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, et al. Whatever happens, I'm really looking forward to this potential NFC Championship preview.



Sunday Night

Green Bay at New England
New England can be had. They're thin at running back, Gronk hasn't been healthy all season, and the defence has shown a propensity for giving up big plays. Still, they're much better than Green Bay. New England should win this, but it's Aaron Rodgers, so all bets are off. Should be a good one, folks.



Monday Night

Tennessee at Dallas
If you have either one of these teams figured out, then you're way ahead of me. Really, I could go either way on this one, but I'll lean towards the home squad, because they are the home squad, and because their offence should, at least in theory, be better than Tennessee's.

​

I'm still on vacation, but of course watching football is definitely on the agenda this weekend. Watching the news, with the kind of week it's been, I think we all could use a little escape, so hopefully this week's slate will oblige us by producing some entertainment.

There's nothing wrong with that, right?

So, I'll skip the preliminaries this week and get right down to business.


Week Eight Picks

Winners in Bold:

Sunday

Philadelphia at Jacksonville FC
Philly looked pretty good for three quarters against Carolina, but lost it all in the 4th. Jacksonville hasn't looked good in weeks, and inspires no confidence in any facet of its game.

Denver at Kansas City
Denver thumped a weakling last week, and Kansas City is not a weakling.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh was lucky (the league even said so) to escape with a tie against Cleveland in Week One. Since then, Cleveland has gotten a bit of a lift on offence by switching to Baker Mayfield, and Pittsburgh has gradually started playing better. The home team is a pretty safe pick here.

Washington at NYG
In the sudden hurry to jettison players, I half expected New York's addled brain trust to accidentally swap players with the similarly tanking team from Oakland. Washington continues to surprise by playing competent if unspectacular football (which would be an appropriate description of Alex Smith's career). New York aspires to competent. The most entertaining thing about this game might be OBJ and Josh Norman vying for the title of biggest idiot on the field, and that's just sad.

Seattle at Detroit
Seattle is another team that has surprisingly not completely sucked this year. This is a tricky one, but I'm leaning towards Detroit because I like the dimension that RB Kerryon Johnson has added to the offence.

Tampa at Cincinnati
Cincy is a puzzling team. They have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, but struggle at times on defence, and last week, against a very limited Kansas City defence, could not generate very much offence. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, it all comes down to coaching, and that's where Marvin Lewis's charges always come up short. Having said that, they should be able to handle Tampa easily at home. Perhaps the absence of Vontaze Burfict this week will be a case of addition by subtraction.

NYJ at Chicago
New England definitely had the right gameplan to handle Chicago's defence last week, but I liked how Chicago's offence responded to the challenge. I expect that Chicago will have an easier time at home to New York this week.

Baltimore at Carolina
Completing 16 out of 22 passes for 201 yards, 2TDs and no INTs would be a decent QB stat line for a game, phenomenal for a half; that's what Cam Newton did to the defending champs in the 4th quarter last week, leading TD drives of 80, 87, and 69 yards. When Newton is on, he's nigh-unstoppable. Baltimore's defence will give him all he can handle this week, but I think that Joe Flacco will have it just a bit worse against Carolina's defence.

Indianapolis at Oakland
Andrew Luck continues to shine, and the Jon Gruden-led Oakland fire sale has gutted the team of both its personnel and its spirit.

San Francisco at Arizona
This game is meaningless; two teams coming off hellacious beatdowns, going nowhere.

Green Bay at LAR
Hard to completely count Aaron Rodgers out, but they're really overmatched in this one. If I were a Green Bay fan, I'd be hoping that Rodgers just makes it out of this one uninjured.


Sunday Night

New Orleans at Minnesota
Everson Griffen returns to a Minnesota defence that is a littled dinged-up. I think that this will be the best game of the week. The key here is that I think that Minnesota's offence can keep pace with New Orleans. 


Monday Night

New England at Buffalo
I see absolutely no reason to believe that this game will even be close.

Note: I've been on vacation for the past few days, so I'm a bit out of the loop with regards to recent developments in the league the past few days. That is to say, I'm aware of some things that have happened (Giants trades, Reid/Jenkins, etc.) but I haven't been able to look into anything with enough depth to write intelligently about it today. So I'l skip the preliminaries and get right to tonight's matchup, which I do know a bit about.


Thursday Night

Miami at Houston

Houston has been on one heck of an interesting run the past four weeks. They've won because of dumb coaching decisions by the opposition (Indianapolis, Dallas), gross personnel mismanagement (Buffalo, Nathan Peterman), and last week, faced a Jacksonville team that can't do anything right and has to be the most disappointing team in the league this season. The result is that Houston, which began the season 0-3, is now 4-3 and in first place in its division. Meanwhile, heading in the opposite direction, we have Miami; they started 3-0, but have managed only one win in their last four games.

For all their issues with terrible offensive play-calling (the domain of the perennially awful Bill O'Brien), Houston has played well during its win streak. Their defence has been especially stout in its last three contests, with JJ Watt looking resurgent. This is bad news for a Miami team starting Brock Osweiler again tonight. Osweiler has actually played pretty well in relief of the injured (again) Ryan Tannehill, but any hopes that Osweiler has of getting back at the team that so rudely cast him aside after only one (bad) season in 2016, will most likely go unfulfilled. Osweiler should be in for a rough night, as Miami is ridiculously thin at wideout due to injuries, and Houston's pass rush will give him fits.

Winner: Houston