There’s a lot of talk about these two games being rematches, but I’m more interested in the contrasts. In the NFC, we’ll see the top-two seeds squaring off in what I believe will be a much closer contest than some are expecting. In the AFC, we have a number two seed hosting the upstart, sixth-seeded giant-killers that knocked off the defending champs and this year’s number one seed in quick succession. We’ll see a high-flying passing squad going toe-to-toe against a bruising rushing team. We’ll see a storied veteran QB, hungry for a return trip to the big game which has eluded him for nine years, facing off against a young signal-caller who has more rings than he does.
 
There’s lots to like about this Sunday’s games. I’m hoping for a couple of great matchups, in which the players get to decide the outcomes, and with no bad officiating to taint the proceedings.
 
Let’s break ‘em down:
 
 
AFC Championship
 
Tennessee at KC (Racist Cosplay Stadium)
 
One of my best friends is a Tennessee fan. A real fan, going back to their days as the Houston Oilers. Lots of ups and downs, highs and lows. I’m going to say some things about his team in this column that he’ll hate hearing. He probably won’t disagree, but he’ll still hate reading it.
 
Derrick Henry is playing at such a high, dominant level right now, it’s difficult to fathom. Since being held out of Tennessee’s Week 16 game against New Orleans, all Henry has done is carry the ball 96 times for just under 590 yards(!) in three games. After watching him steamroll an excellent New England defence, that knew he was getting the ball, on Wild Card Weekend, I said to my wife something to the effect that I don’t know what else will happen with this team, but it only gets easier for Henry from this point on. True to form, Henry went out last week and steamrolled a Baltimore defence that was good, though not as good as New England’s, and that also knew what was coming. His performance has chewed up clock as it’s chewed up yards, keeping the likes of Tom Brady and Lamar Jackson on the bench for long stretches. Even the mere threat of Henry running allows Ryan Tannehill to make plays off play-action, as DBs creep towards the line to help out against Henry, only to allow Tennessee’s receivers to get open. The threat of Henry running is so acute, that it even allowed Henry himself to throw a weird, jump-shot TD pass against Baltimore.
 
Now, with an extra day’s rest (Tennessee played last Saturday, KC on Sunday), Henry faces a below-average defence that is terrible against the run, and that has its best run defender hurt.
 
See. Easier.
 
I know, I know, that’s a lot about one player. But, I mean, he’s earned it, don’t you think?
 
Now, Patrick Mahomes is no slouch either. Don’t let the slip in his numbers fool you. He’s every bit as good as he was last season. You could make the case that he’s the most complete QB in the whole league. Lately, and particularly last week, Mahomes has been playing with a real fire. I attribute this to a combination of the sting of losing to New England in last year’s playoffs, when he did not get a chance to touch the ball in OT, and his getting injured this season. He looks and sounds like a man who will do anything it takes to win. His complement of receiving weapons is extremely dangerous. With Andy Reid’s play designs, the talent and speed at the receiving positions, and Mahomes making the whole thing go, this is a unit designed to score points quickly.
 
Tennessee’s defence, not particularly a strength throughout the regular season, has been outstanding thus far in the postseason. That they were able to so thoroughly stymie New England’s offence was not a huge surprise, due to the Pats’ offensive woes, but that still doesn’t change the fact that Tennessee played a disciplined game. Their performance against Baltimore was more impressive considering what they were facing, but the defensive philosophy was essentially the same. Tennessee needed to play a disciplined scheme that took away what Baltimore did best all year. It’s the perfect defensive strategy for a team with an offence like Tennessee’s.
 
To me, it’s kind of like watching last season’s New England team. Take away what the opponent does best on offence, control the clock, keep the opponent’s defence on the field. Anyone remember who eliminated KC from the playoffs last season?
 
KC is going to move the ball. They’ve got too much talent. Mike Vrabel knows this, just as Bill Belichick knew it last year. The key to beating KC is accepting this, but limiting the amount of points they get on drives, and not giving up big plays. Shortening the game reduces the number of possessions Mahomes gets. Remember how many yards Lamar Jackson racked up in the second half against Tennessee last week? How many points did Baltimore score? Twelve. That’s it. Andy Reid is great at drawing up plays, but he has a long history of being a terrible in-game coach, doing things like failing to adjust game plans, insisting on winning “his way,” butchering the clock, and so on. What will he do if Tennessee starts asserting its will over the flow and tempo of the game?
 
Because Tennessee doesn’t have a great pass rush, they need to keep Mahomes in the pocket, limit his mobility, avoid giving up big plays. If Tennessee does that, and their offence holds up its end, we could see an upset.
 
Winner: Tennessee
 
 

​NFC Championship
 
Green Bay at San Francisco (Canadian Tuxedo Stadium)
 
San Francisco’s defence is formidable: strong up front, with excellent pass-rushers, deep and talented at LB, and a secondary anchored by the resurgent Richard Sherman, who is playing his best football in years. After struggling with injuries to key personnel, last week we got to see San Fran’s defence the healthiest it’s been in a while, and the results were impressive. However, I just can’t shake the feeling that, yes, they shut down their opponent, but the opponent in this case was Minnesota.
 
For all the hoo-hah, ballyhoo, and numbers, Minnesota isn’t Green Bay. Or, to be more succinct, Kirk Cousins isn’t Aaron Rodgers.
 
Rodgers can still do Rodgers things. He can make all the throws, with power, touch, and remarkable accuracy. He’s mobile, throws well on the run, and rushes well enough to keep a defence honest. He has one excellent WR, Davante Adams, and a host of talented young wideouts. He has TE Jimmy Graham. He has RB Aaron Jones, a fantastic runner and good pass-catcher. His OL is playing very well. Green Bay absolutely has the personnel to be successful against San Fran’s defence.
 
San Francisco’s offence has played extremely well for most of the season. They run the ball well, and Jimmy Garoppolo runs the offence efficiently and without a lot of mistakes. Green Bay has a defence that has played better than any the team has had in years. Like San Fran, Green Bay has excellent pass-rushers who can disrupt any offence, plus lots of depth and talent throughout the rest of the defence. Garoppolo hasn’t faced a lot of pressure this season, so in an offence that relies so much on executing coach Kyle Shanahan’s offensive schemes, I have to question whether Garoppolo can maintain his composure if plays break down. Also, despite having run the ball fairly successfully this season, none of the ‘niners’ RBs are elite. I expect Green Bay’s defence to try to focus primarily on slowing down San Fran’s best receiver, George Kittle, and hope that their defensive front can limit the run and get pressure on Garoppolo.
 
For Rodgers and Co. to be successful against San Fran’s well-balanced defence, first and foremost, Tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari have to play the whole game. Few teams have the talent at T to handle edge rushers of the quality that San Fran has, but Bulaga and Bakhtiari can handle guys like Dee Ford and MAGA-Idiot Bosa one-on-one. If Green Bay’s OL plays well, and they can run the ball effectively, they can take some shots in the passing game because Sherman can’t cover everyone.
 
A lot of people probably think that this one is a foregone conclusion, because San Fran is playing so well, and because they trounced Green Bay earlier this season. I think this has the potential to be a great matchup that goes right down to the wire. I hope I’m right.
 
Winner: Green Bay
 
(Maybe you’ll think I’m crazy, but folks thought I was nuts for picking two underdogs in last year’s conference championship games, and that turned out ok for me. ~~ RO)

There’s a lot going on in Sunday’s games, but even I’ll admit that the big story today is the QB matchups. In the first game, we get a showdown between two of the game’s brightest young stars, who, in their ability, poise, and leadership, remind me a lot of the veteran QBs, both Superb Owl winners, who will face off in the second game.
 
There are questions surrounding some of the teams in action today as to who will be available. Injuries will likely play a huge part in determining the victors in these contests. As a team, you can only do what you can with the players you have, and any player playing hurt can only give as much as their body will allow.
 
Here’s what I expect to happen:
 
 
Sunday
 
Houston at KC
 
The lead-up to this game pretty much encapsulates a lot of what I despise about the sycophantic, boot-licking, access-driven media that covers the league. To have them tell it, Houston, fresh off their triumph last week, head to Kansas City to match their explosive offence against KC’s much-improved defence.
 
Sure. Whatever.
 
Houston was dominated by Buffalo in the first half of last week’s Wild Card game. Then, inexplicably, Buffalo went conservative in the second half, and they blew it. All credit to Houston for taking advantage, but that’s what happened. And as for KC’s suddenly-great defence? I keep hearing and reading about how great they played in the last five-or-six games, but the ones doing the praising keep quoting stats, but conveniently neglect to mention that those numbers are severely skewed by the three points each KC gave up to Denver and Chicago, pretty much the bottom of the offensive barrel.
 
That’s not to say that this won’t be an entertaining game. It should be. How much so depends on who’s healthy.
 
Houston beat KC in Week 6 mostly by running the ball effectively with Carlos Hyde and keeping KC’s offence off the field. Since then, Duke Johnson has emerged as an effective change-of-pace back, and pass-catcher. On paper, Houston is deep at the receiving positions. With the brilliant Deshaun Watson running the show, Houston is more than capable of scoring loads of points. KC’s offence has talent at some positions, but overall isn’t upper-echelon like Buffalo, and are down a starting S and possibly a DT.
 
Of course, KC is no slouch on offence either. They have a decent running attack, lots of speed at wideout, and Travis Kelce, with the great Patrick Mahomes behind Center. Houston’s defence isn’t great, so KC should be able to score lots of points in this one as well. Houston welcomed JJ Watt back to action last week, and he made his presence felt, seemingly getting stronger as the contest wore on. Houston will need Watt to be in top form, as the more time Mahomes has, the more damage he can do getting the ball deep to his fast WRs.
 
So, who do I like? That’s where the “who’s playing” part comes in. KC has a couple of injuries on defence, but are mostly healthy and they’re rested from their bye. Travis Kelce is hurt, and he’s a huge part of their offence, but he’s not everything. Houston has a very banged-up secondary, and their defence played a tough game last week. On offence, Kenny Stills and the perpetually-injured Will Fuller are hobbled, along with Houston’s top two TEs. When you add it all up, it’s too much to ask Houston’s walking wounded to go into KC and win again.
 
Winner: KC
 
 
Seattle at Green Bay
 
This isn’t a complicated pick for me.
 
Seattle has Russell Wilson and a couple of really good WRs on offence. They also have an offensive line that has three starters hurt, and though none has been ruled Out yet, even if they do play, they’ll be at less than 100%. Seattle’s defence isn’t terrible, but it’s middling at best.
 
Green Bay is rested and relatively healthy. Their defence is the best it’s been in years. Their pass rush is good. On offence, they have some good receivers, plus Davante Adams, who has game-changing ability. Their running game is better than it’s been in a while, led by Aaron Jones. And they have Aaron Rodgers, who still has the arm, is still mobile, and is hungry for success after years of futility under phoning-it-in Mike McCarthy (Congratulations, Dallas, BTW).
 
I would never write off any team QBed by Russell Wilson. Having said that, this is Green Bay’s game to win or lose.
 
Winner: Green Bay 
​

For Saturday’s games, we have the conferences’ top-seeds facing off against two wolves-in-sheeps’-clothing, pseudo-underdogs that prevailed Wild Card Weekend. Despite being on the road last week, I predicted that Tennessee would send New England packing, while I thought that Minnesota should beat New Orleans, but I couldn’t quite summon the faith to actually pick them. What can I say? The Vikes have burned me before.
 
Despite these two teams being on the road again this week against the best competition these playoffs have to offer, you can’t rule either team out.
 
My take: both teams experienced signature wins last week, but they will have the opposite effect for each team.
 
Ok, let’s break them down:
 
 
Saturday
 
Minnesota at San Francisco
 
One of the big questions being asked of Minnesota’s defence entering the postseason was how would their secondary hold up without its two top CBs, and with Xavier Rhodes having a bad year? I contended last week that the Vikes’ depth at Safety would help out significantly, and that’s how things played out. Elite Safety tandem Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris played well, and backup S Andrew Sendejo also saw significant playing time. With Sendejo often lining up in the slot, Smith and Harris were able to be a huge part of the effort that held Michael Thomas to only seven catches. As a result, crybaby/suckface Drew Brees had a lot of completions, but not a lot of yards, as he was under pressure a lot from Minnesota’s superb DL, and had to settle for quick-hitters (i.e.: Alvin Kamara had 8 catches for only 32 yards). Minnesota absolutely has the personnel to slow down Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco offence. Minnesota’s defensive front doesn’t need a lot of help to get pressure on the passer, and their depth at LB helps out in run support. Minnesota will probably use some combination of S/LB to disrupt George Kittle, and rely on its pass rush to disrupt Garoppolo before Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel can get separation. San Fran’s offence is too good not to be able to move the ball, but if Minnesota’s defence plays as well as it did against New Orleans, San Fran will have difficulty scoring a lot of points.
 
This game will be won or lost by the matchup between Minnesota’s offence and San Francisco’s defence. San Fran is tough against the pass, with an effective pass rush of their own, and a secondary that has played well for most of the season. However, they’re not quite as tough against the run. Minnesota’s ability to win this game will be determined by who is on the field. Dalvin Cook is in fine form, and should be able to move the ball against San Fran. Kyle Rudolph is one of the better pass-catching TEs in the league. The big concern entering this contest is the health of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Both are nursing nagging injuries, and both absolutely have to play for significant amounts if Minnesota is to have a chance. Diggs and Thielen keep defences from stacking the box against Cook, as well as providing big plays out of play-action looks.
 
This looks like it has the potential to be a great game. I’m counting on Diggs and Thielen to put it all on the line. I’m also betting on last week’s performance by Kirk Cousins to be a galvanizing force that gives the team confidence and propels them to another superlative effort.
 
Winner: Minnesota
 
 
 
 
Tennessee at Baltimore
 
This game is in prime-time, I’d guess because of the excitement surrounding the performance of MVP-to-be Lamar Jackson. I suspect that it won’t be as good a game as the afternoon game.
 
Not that it couldn’t be. Derrick Henry seems to have transcended elite RB status, and has become a full-fledged force of nature. Watching Ryan Tannehill hand off to Henry again and again against an excellent Pats’ defence, when the defending champs knew what was coming, only to have Henry continue to gain yardage was breathtaking. We know what Henry can do, and so does Baltimore. That’s why Baltimore has to do everything they can to slow Henry down, and force Tannehill to beat them. Tannehill has played extremely well, and the ability and endurance of Henry makes play-action a huge opportunity for Tennessee. Unfortunately for Tennessee, they’re thin at wideout, and Baltimore’s secondary is talented.
 
Tennessee’s defence performed excellently last week against the Pats. However, New England’s offence wasn’t nearly as much of a challenge as Baltimore’s will be. We all know what Lamar Jackson has done this season. Baltimore’s running game is solid, even if Mark Ingram can’t go. Between Baltimore’s depth at RB, and the threat of designed runs by Jackson, quick-hitters to the TEs out of play-action are also a significant part of Baltimore’s offensive repertoire.
 
The bottom line on this game is that Tennessee’s defence probably isn’t good enough to limit Baltimore’s diverse offence to any great extent. Tennessee’s best defence will be slow, methodical drives by its offence keeping Jackson and Co, off the field. Tennessee had to fight just to get into the playoffs, and last week, they rolled into Foxborough and beat the champs, which for most teams, is like winning a championship. They’ve peaked, and once you peak, there’s nowhere to go but down.
 
Winner: Baltimore

Wild Card Weekend, day two.
 
One game I’m excited about, another one, not so much.
 
Here’s what I expect:
 
 
Sunday
 
Minnesota at New Orleans
 
I don’t think many people expect Minnesota to win this game. I don’t expect Minnesota to win this game. They could, though.
 
New Orleans has a talented defence, with good DBs and a strong pass rush. However, they’ve shown that they can susceptible to giving up a lot of points to a good offence. Minnesota has a strong running game, featuring Dalvin Cook, and are flush with good pass-catchers, particularly Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph. New Orleans recently lost two of their top pass rushers to injury, so Kirk Cousins will have opportunities to move the ball and score points. But will it be enough.
 
New Orleans’s potent offence is predicated on getting Michael Thomas the ball, and Thomas has shown that he can get open. The only defence that had any success in limiting Thomas this season was Carolina’s, because of their pass rush. Minnesota does an excellent job of getting pressure on the QB. Drew Brees can check down to Alvin Kamara, or try to get a quick hitter to TE Jared Cook, but being forced into an abundance of those types of plays won’t yield big points. Minnesota’s defence will be at a bit of a disadvantage, as they recently lost two of their top CBs to injury. However, they still have arguably the best Safety tandem in the league in Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris, so that will help significantly.
 
If Minnesota commits to limiting Michael Thomas’s catches, and are patient and efficient on offence, they can beat New Orleans. I would even go so far as to say that Minnesota SHOULD beat New Orleans. They just won’t. When the stakes are high, Minnesota comes up small.
 
Winner: New Orleans
 
 

​Seattle at Philadelphia
 
This is the game that I’m least looking forward to this weekend, so I’ll be brief.
 
This will be Carson Wentz’s first playoff action. Philly had playoff success the last two seasons with Nick Foles at QB. You remember Foles; he’s the one they should have kept.
 
Philly won 4-straight to end the season, winning the NFC East (aka: the division no one wanted). They beat NYG (twice), Washington, and colossally-disappointing Dallas. Philly is a mirage.
 
Seattle has had a weird season, looking like world-beaters, but throwing out the occasional stinker that makes you scratch your head. They were only 4-4 in their noise-box of a stadium, but 7-1 on the road. Just like every year, their OL stinks.
 
I expect to see two QBs running for their lives for four quarters. No one does this quite like Russell Wilson. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf will feast on Philly’s garbage secondary.
 
Winner: Seattle

Well, we’ve dispensed with the regular season, so I’ll dispense with the preliminaries and dive right into Saturday’s action. There are two excellent matchups on tap, so hopefully we’ll get some good games.
 
Let’s go!
 
 
Saturday
 
Buffalo at Houston
 
Over and over, I’ve heard that Houston will win this game because Buffalo’s offence isn’t good enough. If only it were that simple.
 
Josh Allen has had an up-and-down season as a passer, at times inaccurate, and relying heavily on Cole “Hillbilly Edelman” Beasley and John Brown, which makes Buffalo’s passing game relatively easy to defend. The running game has been more consistent, and has allowed Buffalo to sustain drives and win close games. Allen’s athleticism and fearlessness gives the offence an added dimension that can be hard to quantify and defend. Going up against Houston’s defence, which is mediocre and doesn’t do anything particularly well, Buffalo can absolutely muster enough offence to win this game.
 
Houston’s offence is streaky, but effective. Deshaun Watson has game-changing ability, they have quality receivers, and their running game is decent enough. Unfortunately, they have the unenviable task of facing the second-best defence in the league (don’t listen when pundits say Buffalo’s defence is 3rd-best; the league ranks based on yards, but it’s points, not yards, that decide games). Buffalo’s defence is well-coached, and relies on scheme and depth rather than stars. Their secondary plays well in coverage, allowing the team to get pressure on the passer. The best hope that Houston’s offence has in this one is if they can run the ball effectively early, and if WR Will Fuller plays. Fuller is a field-stretcher, and the depth he adds to the receiving corps will go a long way towards helping free up DeAndre Hopkins, thereby helping Watson find open targets quickly enough to avoid Buffalo’s pass rush.
 
I’ve been high on this Buffalo team all season, and they absolutely have what it takes to pull off an upset here.
 
Winner: Buffalo
 
 

Tennessee at New England
 
Asking any team to go into Foxborough and win a playoff game is asking a lot. Tennessee is the underdog in this game, but should they be?
 
Tennessee has really had two seasons; pre-Tannehill, and Tannehill Time. Since the team finally pulled the plug on Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill has turned this offensive unit into one of the most efficient in the league, spreading the ball around, and unlocking the game-wrecking potential of rookie wideout AJ Brown. Throughout it all, the constant has been Derrick Henry and his superior blend of power, speed, and durability. Their defence is middle-of-the-pack; solid, if unspectacular, but certainly not awful.
 
Everyone knows what New England has done on defence this season. Everything starts with the DBs, particularly Stephon Gilmore. The strength of the defence lies in the coverage ability of the secondary, which allows New England’s no-stars front seven to get lots of pressure on the passer. The hallmark of New England defences for years has been its ability to take away what the opponent does best. This is why Tennessee’s offence presents such a challenge; it does a lot of things well. Add to that the fact that New England’s defence skews older, and is a bit banged-up, and the physicality of players like Henry and Brown, plus Tannehill’s mobility, will take a toll.
 
New England’s best hope is if its offence can move the ball, sustain drives, score points, eat up clock, and keep the other team’s offence off the field. In other words, things that they haven’t been able to do with any kind of consistency all season. Despite what you might have heard, Tom Brady has not played badly this season. However, he’s had to deal with a rash of injuries along the O-Line and at wideout. The team’s inefficient passing game, along with OL problems and the loss of FB James Develin has sapped the effectiveness of the running game. Phillip Dorsett hasn’t looked good since he was concussed by a dirty (and unflagged) hit against Philadelphia in Week 11; he’s only had 3 catches since then. The TE position has virtually no presence in the passing game. Julian Edelman has been hurt all season, and looked it, but played in every game and caught 100 balls. Why? BECAUSE HE HAD TO! No other receiver has been able to consistently step up to shoulder some of the load.
 
Of course, this is New England, and these are the playoffs, so it’s hard to rule them out in this one. The weather in Foxborough is supposed to be nasty, cold, windy, and wet. While this might seem to favour Tennessee, with Derrick Henry pounding the ball on the ground, Tannehill might struggle, which would be a boon to New England’s defence. In a contest that ends up being decided by running backs, New England’s depth makes them up to the challenge. A big game by versatile Rex Burkhead is essential for the Pats to have a chance.
 
The thing that New England really needed, more than anything, was rest, the kind you can only get from a first-round bye. That they couldn’t secure that last week against Miami tells me everything I need to know about this team. Even if the defence and/or special teams forces some turnovers, the offence does just enough, and they pull this one out, the success will be short-lived. I believe there’s an excellent chance that New England will make an early exit from this year’s post-season tournament.
 
Winner: Tennessee