Another year, another Big Game?

Or, is it a battle for a country’s soul?
 
America, you look tired to me. For years, I’ve watched as partisan politics have divided the country more and more, year after year. In 2008, you elected Barack Obama president, and it looked like there might be hope for your future. However, the Republican Party exploited Obama’s desire for change, and America’s complicated history with racism, and worked overtime to undermine Obama’s presidency and foment division among the nation’s citizenry.
 
In 2012, Obama was re-elected, and the Republicans redoubled their divisive and harmful efforts.
 
The results were disastrous; in 2016, the country elected what is essentially a failed human being as its president.
 
The time since the 2016 election has been disastrous for the country. Scarcely has the media and the public had time to process one monstrous act committed by the president, but a fresh new outrage has occurred. In the ensuing three years, following the lead of the president, the Republicans have become arrogant and lawless, basically doing whatever they want, no matter how their actions fly in the face of morality, decency, legality.
 
This week, we saw the culmination of this, as Republican Senators essentially wiped their asses with the constitution, and threw away any illusion of duty to the public and to justice.
 
I wish I could say that I’m shocked. I’m not.
 
They’re just protecting their brand.
 
I’m tired, too. Tired of football. Tired of the NFL.
 
The past few years, as the end of the season approaches, I find that, unlike when I was younger, I’m ready for it to be over. I love watching football, but I hate the NFL.
 
The more the league promotes itself as changing for the better, the more things stay the same. They tinker with the rules. They bring in new helmet designs. They trumpet their commitment to player safety. They say they take social issues seriously. And what do we get? Colin Kaepernick is still out of the league. There’s still Thursday football. A convicted woman-beater is recorded threatening a woman, yet he escapes punishment. The Washington team name…!
 
It’s maddening.
 
The league does whatever it wants. It promotes itself as a force for good while rewarding or ignoring bad behaviour. It’s all a façade.
 
Look at New Orleans, and its golden boy, Drew Brees. New Orleans is a marquee franchise. Their great season after Hurricane Katrina was a feel-good story, and God-fearing family man Brees was the face of it all.
 
From where I sit, New Orleans is garbage, and Brees is a little weasel.
 
Remember the New Orleans bounty scandal? Huge embarrassment to the team and the league. Instead of refusing to comment, and despite copious evidence, Brees insisted on offering up snivelling answers where he denied all knowledge while defending the perpetrators.
 
A few years ago, Brees, the multimillionaire football champion, appeared on some stupid TV show, where he stabbed a crocodile to death. What a hero.
 
Did you know that Brees endorsed a multilevel marketing company that hawked junk supplements, and that which was later determined to be a pyramid scheme?
 
Earlier this season, Brees was criticized for making a video for a “Bring a bible to school” promotion. The video was made by a religious group notorious for its anti-LGBTQ stance, as well as for promoting “gay conversion therapy.” When questioned, Brees professed that he had no problem with LGBTQ people, but refused to denounce the group, and blamed the media for the whole controversy. Nutless wonder, that one.
 
Just recently, the New Orleans organization has come under fire for apparently providing assistance to the local Catholic Church archdiocese, which is being sued for failing to protect someone from being abused by clergy. (You can read all about it here.) Why a football team would be helping the Catholic Church evade punishment for protecting abusers is beyond me, but such is the level of gross, arrogance that exists with the league and its teams that they can get away with anything.
 
(The Catholic Church; there’s an organization that knows about protecting its brand.)
 
Oh, and Drew Brees: Republican.

And this is just one franchise. There are many more stories, under-reported or ignored by a mainstream sports media that values access over integrity. 
 
Did you watch the AFC Championship Game? Watching the commentators hype the game, while that vile racist chant was going on in the background was sickening. Don’t think the chant is racist? Remember that incident a year ago when a group of students from a Catholic High School (Catholics!), who were wearing MAGA hats, mocked an indigenous man at the Lincoln Memorial? The students mocked him with that same chant and chopping motion that is promoted as fervent fan behaviour by the league. Even kids know it’s racist.
 
San Francisco is in The Big Game for the first time since Kaepernick QBed them there. How many times have you heard his name on TV during the playoffs?
 
The league is so rich, so powerful, that it basically does whatever it wants, even if what it wants flies in the face of decency and morality.
 
The NFL is the Republican Party.
 
So, which team are you rooting for on Sunday?
 
We have a team from a Blue State, against a team from a Red State, playing in a swing state.
 
San Fran has characters, but little controversy. Nick Bosa was dubbed a MAGA idiot in college because of some social media posts, but he’s toned it down since entering the pros.
 
KC has Tyreek Hill, and if you don’t know his story by now, then you’re being willfully ignorant. They also have Frank Clark, who has hit women and threatened female journalists in the past, and who showed up to a media appearance this week with a picture of Trump on his shirt.
 
I’m tired. You’re tired. America is tired.
 
Is this just a game?
 
Wouldn’t that be nice?
 
 
 
Sunday, February 2, 2020

Superb Owl LIV

San Francisco at KC, in Miami, Florida
 
A few times over the past two weeks, I’ve had people ask me what I thought about The Big Game. Each time I’ve been asked, I’ve confidently answered the same way. When pressed, I have gone into detail as to why I think the game will go the way I think it will. For two weeks, essentially since it became apparent that San Francisco would be the team meeting KC in Miami, my mind has been made up, and nothing that has happened since then has managed to change my mind one iota.
 
So, what’s my pick?
 
I’ll get to that. But first, let me talk a bit about these two teams, and how they got to Miami.
 
I did not pick San Francisco to be here. I did not even think that they would be a playoff team this season. When they got off to a hot start, I thought it was a mirage, and that they would cool off.
 
They never did.
 
I feel comfortable saying now that they are the most complete team in the league. There are some things that they do extremely well, and other things that they do reasonably well, but they have no real weakness.
 
Watching San Fran this season, I saw a team that could win in a variety of ways. There were weeks where they just overwhelmed inferior teams with superior talent. They split a couple of close games with division-rival Seattle. They kicked the crap out of Green Bay. They battled through injuries to key defensive personnel, like Dee Ford, Kwon Alexander, and Jaquiskie Tartt. Down the stretch, they started to look beatable. They lost a close matchup at Baltimore. They won shootouts at New Orleans and at home to another division rival, LA. They lost to a resurgent Atlanta squad. Their final five contests were one-score games, but they won their last two, and entered the playoffs as the number one seed.
 
In the ensuing two weeks, San Francisco rested and got healthy. In their two playoff games, against quality teams Minnesota and Green Bay, San Francisco has looked dominant again. I watched both games, and neither ever really looked to be in question.
 
KC started the season with pretty high expectations after last season’s breakout year, for both the team and for Patrick Mahomes. They got off to a good start. Then they struggled a bit, barely beating a banged-up Detroit squad, then losing consecutive games at home to Houston and Indianapolis. In a game against punchless Denver, Mahomes got hurt, and sat out the next two games, a loss to Green Bay, and a close win against Minnesota. Upon returning, a gimpy Mahomes lost a shootout against Tennessee, then KC reeled off six-straight wins to close the season, including an absolute steal in a horribly-officiated game in Foxborough. That season-ending winning streak looked impressive, but it came against a series of teams with offensive woes.
 
With KC, you know what you’re getting. Their offence is incredibly well-equipped. Their receivers are a track team. They have one of the best receiving TEs in the league. Their vertical passing attack leaves lots of room for the running game. And everything goes through the best and most complete QB in the league. Their much-ballyhooed defensive resurgence, talked about incessantly by the mainstream sports media, is largely a myth, bolstered by those final six regular season games. KC has a decent pass rush, but nowhere near the best. Their secondary play has been improved mostly due to the presence of the spectacular Tyrann Mathieu. The type of versatility and playmaking ability that a player like Mathieu brings to a defence can’t help but improve everyone else’s play. KC’s LB corps is middling at best.
 
Thus far in the playoffs, KC has managed to overcome slow starts (including a staggering level of initial incompetence against Houston), largely due to an offence that is built to score quickly and often. However, much like in the regular season, KC has been the beneficiary of luck, in this case the largesse the opposing teams’ coaches.  After going up 24-0, dum-dum Bill O’Brien’s baffling decisions essentially handed the advantage to KC, which proceeded to take the ball and run with it. Though not quite as egregious, Tennessee made some dubious play calls against KC after taking an early lead. The result has been a KC team that has scored prolifically, but has been almost as lucky as it has been good.
 
San Francisco’s offence is well-balanced and incredibly efficient. Kyle Shanahan’s play design has proven phenomenal at scheming players open and exploiting mismatches. Jimmy Garoppolo runs things coolly, and he has a lot to work with. The OL is sound, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk are tremendous blockers as well as essential pass-catchers. They have some good playmakers at WR. They should be able to exploit KC’s defensive shortcomings, particularly KC’s weakness at LB, to great effect. I expect that San Fran’s offence will have its way with KC’s defence, and that way will be to sustain drives, control the clock, and keep Mahomes on the sideline as much as possible.
 
With his ability, and all the weapons at his disposal, I think it’s unrealistic to expect any team to completely shut down Mahomes. Teams with good defences like New England and Indianapolis have been able to limit his effectiveness, though. San Fran has great pass rush talent. If they can win battles up front, while being disciplined enough to not overrun Mahomes and keep him from scrambling, then the secondary is good enough and physical enough to keep the WRs from getting open for big gains. The LBs will be integral in limiting KC’s running game and keeping Travis Kelce off balance.
 
The three variables are always weather, officiating, and turnovers. The weather should be a non-factor. Officiating is the great unknowable. Turnovers happen.
 
All things being equal, I think San Francisco wins this one by at least two TDs.
 
Final Score: San Francisco 46, KC 31

There’s a lot of talk about these two games being rematches, but I’m more interested in the contrasts. In the NFC, we’ll see the top-two seeds squaring off in what I believe will be a much closer contest than some are expecting. In the AFC, we have a number two seed hosting the upstart, sixth-seeded giant-killers that knocked off the defending champs and this year’s number one seed in quick succession. We’ll see a high-flying passing squad going toe-to-toe against a bruising rushing team. We’ll see a storied veteran QB, hungry for a return trip to the big game which has eluded him for nine years, facing off against a young signal-caller who has more rings than he does.
 
There’s lots to like about this Sunday’s games. I’m hoping for a couple of great matchups, in which the players get to decide the outcomes, and with no bad officiating to taint the proceedings.
 
Let’s break ‘em down:
 
 
AFC Championship
 
Tennessee at KC (Racist Cosplay Stadium)
 
One of my best friends is a Tennessee fan. A real fan, going back to their days as the Houston Oilers. Lots of ups and downs, highs and lows. I’m going to say some things about his team in this column that he’ll hate hearing. He probably won’t disagree, but he’ll still hate reading it.
 
Derrick Henry is playing at such a high, dominant level right now, it’s difficult to fathom. Since being held out of Tennessee’s Week 16 game against New Orleans, all Henry has done is carry the ball 96 times for just under 590 yards(!) in three games. After watching him steamroll an excellent New England defence, that knew he was getting the ball, on Wild Card Weekend, I said to my wife something to the effect that I don’t know what else will happen with this team, but it only gets easier for Henry from this point on. True to form, Henry went out last week and steamrolled a Baltimore defence that was good, though not as good as New England’s, and that also knew what was coming. His performance has chewed up clock as it’s chewed up yards, keeping the likes of Tom Brady and Lamar Jackson on the bench for long stretches. Even the mere threat of Henry running allows Ryan Tannehill to make plays off play-action, as DBs creep towards the line to help out against Henry, only to allow Tennessee’s receivers to get open. The threat of Henry running is so acute, that it even allowed Henry himself to throw a weird, jump-shot TD pass against Baltimore.
 
Now, with an extra day’s rest (Tennessee played last Saturday, KC on Sunday), Henry faces a below-average defence that is terrible against the run, and that has its best run defender hurt.
 
See. Easier.
 
I know, I know, that’s a lot about one player. But, I mean, he’s earned it, don’t you think?
 
Now, Patrick Mahomes is no slouch either. Don’t let the slip in his numbers fool you. He’s every bit as good as he was last season. You could make the case that he’s the most complete QB in the whole league. Lately, and particularly last week, Mahomes has been playing with a real fire. I attribute this to a combination of the sting of losing to New England in last year’s playoffs, when he did not get a chance to touch the ball in OT, and his getting injured this season. He looks and sounds like a man who will do anything it takes to win. His complement of receiving weapons is extremely dangerous. With Andy Reid’s play designs, the talent and speed at the receiving positions, and Mahomes making the whole thing go, this is a unit designed to score points quickly.
 
Tennessee’s defence, not particularly a strength throughout the regular season, has been outstanding thus far in the postseason. That they were able to so thoroughly stymie New England’s offence was not a huge surprise, due to the Pats’ offensive woes, but that still doesn’t change the fact that Tennessee played a disciplined game. Their performance against Baltimore was more impressive considering what they were facing, but the defensive philosophy was essentially the same. Tennessee needed to play a disciplined scheme that took away what Baltimore did best all year. It’s the perfect defensive strategy for a team with an offence like Tennessee’s.
 
To me, it’s kind of like watching last season’s New England team. Take away what the opponent does best on offence, control the clock, keep the opponent’s defence on the field. Anyone remember who eliminated KC from the playoffs last season?
 
KC is going to move the ball. They’ve got too much talent. Mike Vrabel knows this, just as Bill Belichick knew it last year. The key to beating KC is accepting this, but limiting the amount of points they get on drives, and not giving up big plays. Shortening the game reduces the number of possessions Mahomes gets. Remember how many yards Lamar Jackson racked up in the second half against Tennessee last week? How many points did Baltimore score? Twelve. That’s it. Andy Reid is great at drawing up plays, but he has a long history of being a terrible in-game coach, doing things like failing to adjust game plans, insisting on winning “his way,” butchering the clock, and so on. What will he do if Tennessee starts asserting its will over the flow and tempo of the game?
 
Because Tennessee doesn’t have a great pass rush, they need to keep Mahomes in the pocket, limit his mobility, avoid giving up big plays. If Tennessee does that, and their offence holds up its end, we could see an upset.
 
Winner: Tennessee
 
 

​NFC Championship
 
Green Bay at San Francisco (Canadian Tuxedo Stadium)
 
San Francisco’s defence is formidable: strong up front, with excellent pass-rushers, deep and talented at LB, and a secondary anchored by the resurgent Richard Sherman, who is playing his best football in years. After struggling with injuries to key personnel, last week we got to see San Fran’s defence the healthiest it’s been in a while, and the results were impressive. However, I just can’t shake the feeling that, yes, they shut down their opponent, but the opponent in this case was Minnesota.
 
For all the hoo-hah, ballyhoo, and numbers, Minnesota isn’t Green Bay. Or, to be more succinct, Kirk Cousins isn’t Aaron Rodgers.
 
Rodgers can still do Rodgers things. He can make all the throws, with power, touch, and remarkable accuracy. He’s mobile, throws well on the run, and rushes well enough to keep a defence honest. He has one excellent WR, Davante Adams, and a host of talented young wideouts. He has TE Jimmy Graham. He has RB Aaron Jones, a fantastic runner and good pass-catcher. His OL is playing very well. Green Bay absolutely has the personnel to be successful against San Fran’s defence.
 
San Francisco’s offence has played extremely well for most of the season. They run the ball well, and Jimmy Garoppolo runs the offence efficiently and without a lot of mistakes. Green Bay has a defence that has played better than any the team has had in years. Like San Fran, Green Bay has excellent pass-rushers who can disrupt any offence, plus lots of depth and talent throughout the rest of the defence. Garoppolo hasn’t faced a lot of pressure this season, so in an offence that relies so much on executing coach Kyle Shanahan’s offensive schemes, I have to question whether Garoppolo can maintain his composure if plays break down. Also, despite having run the ball fairly successfully this season, none of the ‘niners’ RBs are elite. I expect Green Bay’s defence to try to focus primarily on slowing down San Fran’s best receiver, George Kittle, and hope that their defensive front can limit the run and get pressure on Garoppolo.
 
For Rodgers and Co. to be successful against San Fran’s well-balanced defence, first and foremost, Tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari have to play the whole game. Few teams have the talent at T to handle edge rushers of the quality that San Fran has, but Bulaga and Bakhtiari can handle guys like Dee Ford and MAGA-Idiot Bosa one-on-one. If Green Bay’s OL plays well, and they can run the ball effectively, they can take some shots in the passing game because Sherman can’t cover everyone.
 
A lot of people probably think that this one is a foregone conclusion, because San Fran is playing so well, and because they trounced Green Bay earlier this season. I think this has the potential to be a great matchup that goes right down to the wire. I hope I’m right.
 
Winner: Green Bay
 
(Maybe you’ll think I’m crazy, but folks thought I was nuts for picking two underdogs in last year’s conference championship games, and that turned out ok for me. ~~ RO)

There’s a lot going on in Sunday’s games, but even I’ll admit that the big story today is the QB matchups. In the first game, we get a showdown between two of the game’s brightest young stars, who, in their ability, poise, and leadership, remind me a lot of the veteran QBs, both Superb Owl winners, who will face off in the second game.
 
There are questions surrounding some of the teams in action today as to who will be available. Injuries will likely play a huge part in determining the victors in these contests. As a team, you can only do what you can with the players you have, and any player playing hurt can only give as much as their body will allow.
 
Here’s what I expect to happen:
 
 
Sunday
 
Houston at KC
 
The lead-up to this game pretty much encapsulates a lot of what I despise about the sycophantic, boot-licking, access-driven media that covers the league. To have them tell it, Houston, fresh off their triumph last week, head to Kansas City to match their explosive offence against KC’s much-improved defence.
 
Sure. Whatever.
 
Houston was dominated by Buffalo in the first half of last week’s Wild Card game. Then, inexplicably, Buffalo went conservative in the second half, and they blew it. All credit to Houston for taking advantage, but that’s what happened. And as for KC’s suddenly-great defence? I keep hearing and reading about how great they played in the last five-or-six games, but the ones doing the praising keep quoting stats, but conveniently neglect to mention that those numbers are severely skewed by the three points each KC gave up to Denver and Chicago, pretty much the bottom of the offensive barrel.
 
That’s not to say that this won’t be an entertaining game. It should be. How much so depends on who’s healthy.
 
Houston beat KC in Week 6 mostly by running the ball effectively with Carlos Hyde and keeping KC’s offence off the field. Since then, Duke Johnson has emerged as an effective change-of-pace back, and pass-catcher. On paper, Houston is deep at the receiving positions. With the brilliant Deshaun Watson running the show, Houston is more than capable of scoring loads of points. KC’s offence has talent at some positions, but overall isn’t upper-echelon like Buffalo, and are down a starting S and possibly a DT.
 
Of course, KC is no slouch on offence either. They have a decent running attack, lots of speed at wideout, and Travis Kelce, with the great Patrick Mahomes behind Center. Houston’s defence isn’t great, so KC should be able to score lots of points in this one as well. Houston welcomed JJ Watt back to action last week, and he made his presence felt, seemingly getting stronger as the contest wore on. Houston will need Watt to be in top form, as the more time Mahomes has, the more damage he can do getting the ball deep to his fast WRs.
 
So, who do I like? That’s where the “who’s playing” part comes in. KC has a couple of injuries on defence, but are mostly healthy and they’re rested from their bye. Travis Kelce is hurt, and he’s a huge part of their offence, but he’s not everything. Houston has a very banged-up secondary, and their defence played a tough game last week. On offence, Kenny Stills and the perpetually-injured Will Fuller are hobbled, along with Houston’s top two TEs. When you add it all up, it’s too much to ask Houston’s walking wounded to go into KC and win again.
 
Winner: KC
 
 
Seattle at Green Bay
 
This isn’t a complicated pick for me.
 
Seattle has Russell Wilson and a couple of really good WRs on offence. They also have an offensive line that has three starters hurt, and though none has been ruled Out yet, even if they do play, they’ll be at less than 100%. Seattle’s defence isn’t terrible, but it’s middling at best.
 
Green Bay is rested and relatively healthy. Their defence is the best it’s been in years. Their pass rush is good. On offence, they have some good receivers, plus Davante Adams, who has game-changing ability. Their running game is better than it’s been in a while, led by Aaron Jones. And they have Aaron Rodgers, who still has the arm, is still mobile, and is hungry for success after years of futility under phoning-it-in Mike McCarthy (Congratulations, Dallas, BTW).
 
I would never write off any team QBed by Russell Wilson. Having said that, this is Green Bay’s game to win or lose.
 
Winner: Green Bay 
​

For Saturday’s games, we have the conferences’ top-seeds facing off against two wolves-in-sheeps’-clothing, pseudo-underdogs that prevailed Wild Card Weekend. Despite being on the road last week, I predicted that Tennessee would send New England packing, while I thought that Minnesota should beat New Orleans, but I couldn’t quite summon the faith to actually pick them. What can I say? The Vikes have burned me before.
 
Despite these two teams being on the road again this week against the best competition these playoffs have to offer, you can’t rule either team out.
 
My take: both teams experienced signature wins last week, but they will have the opposite effect for each team.
 
Ok, let’s break them down:
 
 
Saturday
 
Minnesota at San Francisco
 
One of the big questions being asked of Minnesota’s defence entering the postseason was how would their secondary hold up without its two top CBs, and with Xavier Rhodes having a bad year? I contended last week that the Vikes’ depth at Safety would help out significantly, and that’s how things played out. Elite Safety tandem Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris played well, and backup S Andrew Sendejo also saw significant playing time. With Sendejo often lining up in the slot, Smith and Harris were able to be a huge part of the effort that held Michael Thomas to only seven catches. As a result, crybaby/suckface Drew Brees had a lot of completions, but not a lot of yards, as he was under pressure a lot from Minnesota’s superb DL, and had to settle for quick-hitters (i.e.: Alvin Kamara had 8 catches for only 32 yards). Minnesota absolutely has the personnel to slow down Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco offence. Minnesota’s defensive front doesn’t need a lot of help to get pressure on the passer, and their depth at LB helps out in run support. Minnesota will probably use some combination of S/LB to disrupt George Kittle, and rely on its pass rush to disrupt Garoppolo before Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel can get separation. San Fran’s offence is too good not to be able to move the ball, but if Minnesota’s defence plays as well as it did against New Orleans, San Fran will have difficulty scoring a lot of points.
 
This game will be won or lost by the matchup between Minnesota’s offence and San Francisco’s defence. San Fran is tough against the pass, with an effective pass rush of their own, and a secondary that has played well for most of the season. However, they’re not quite as tough against the run. Minnesota’s ability to win this game will be determined by who is on the field. Dalvin Cook is in fine form, and should be able to move the ball against San Fran. Kyle Rudolph is one of the better pass-catching TEs in the league. The big concern entering this contest is the health of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Both are nursing nagging injuries, and both absolutely have to play for significant amounts if Minnesota is to have a chance. Diggs and Thielen keep defences from stacking the box against Cook, as well as providing big plays out of play-action looks.
 
This looks like it has the potential to be a great game. I’m counting on Diggs and Thielen to put it all on the line. I’m also betting on last week’s performance by Kirk Cousins to be a galvanizing force that gives the team confidence and propels them to another superlative effort.
 
Winner: Minnesota
 
 
 
 
Tennessee at Baltimore
 
This game is in prime-time, I’d guess because of the excitement surrounding the performance of MVP-to-be Lamar Jackson. I suspect that it won’t be as good a game as the afternoon game.
 
Not that it couldn’t be. Derrick Henry seems to have transcended elite RB status, and has become a full-fledged force of nature. Watching Ryan Tannehill hand off to Henry again and again against an excellent Pats’ defence, when the defending champs knew what was coming, only to have Henry continue to gain yardage was breathtaking. We know what Henry can do, and so does Baltimore. That’s why Baltimore has to do everything they can to slow Henry down, and force Tannehill to beat them. Tannehill has played extremely well, and the ability and endurance of Henry makes play-action a huge opportunity for Tennessee. Unfortunately for Tennessee, they’re thin at wideout, and Baltimore’s secondary is talented.
 
Tennessee’s defence performed excellently last week against the Pats. However, New England’s offence wasn’t nearly as much of a challenge as Baltimore’s will be. We all know what Lamar Jackson has done this season. Baltimore’s running game is solid, even if Mark Ingram can’t go. Between Baltimore’s depth at RB, and the threat of designed runs by Jackson, quick-hitters to the TEs out of play-action are also a significant part of Baltimore’s offensive repertoire.
 
The bottom line on this game is that Tennessee’s defence probably isn’t good enough to limit Baltimore’s diverse offence to any great extent. Tennessee’s best defence will be slow, methodical drives by its offence keeping Jackson and Co, off the field. Tennessee had to fight just to get into the playoffs, and last week, they rolled into Foxborough and beat the champs, which for most teams, is like winning a championship. They’ve peaked, and once you peak, there’s nowhere to go but down.
 
Winner: Baltimore

Wild Card Weekend, day two.
 
One game I’m excited about, another one, not so much.
 
Here’s what I expect:
 
 
Sunday
 
Minnesota at New Orleans
 
I don’t think many people expect Minnesota to win this game. I don’t expect Minnesota to win this game. They could, though.
 
New Orleans has a talented defence, with good DBs and a strong pass rush. However, they’ve shown that they can susceptible to giving up a lot of points to a good offence. Minnesota has a strong running game, featuring Dalvin Cook, and are flush with good pass-catchers, particularly Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph. New Orleans recently lost two of their top pass rushers to injury, so Kirk Cousins will have opportunities to move the ball and score points. But will it be enough.
 
New Orleans’s potent offence is predicated on getting Michael Thomas the ball, and Thomas has shown that he can get open. The only defence that had any success in limiting Thomas this season was Carolina’s, because of their pass rush. Minnesota does an excellent job of getting pressure on the QB. Drew Brees can check down to Alvin Kamara, or try to get a quick hitter to TE Jared Cook, but being forced into an abundance of those types of plays won’t yield big points. Minnesota’s defence will be at a bit of a disadvantage, as they recently lost two of their top CBs to injury. However, they still have arguably the best Safety tandem in the league in Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris, so that will help significantly.
 
If Minnesota commits to limiting Michael Thomas’s catches, and are patient and efficient on offence, they can beat New Orleans. I would even go so far as to say that Minnesota SHOULD beat New Orleans. They just won’t. When the stakes are high, Minnesota comes up small.
 
Winner: New Orleans
 
 

​Seattle at Philadelphia
 
This is the game that I’m least looking forward to this weekend, so I’ll be brief.
 
This will be Carson Wentz’s first playoff action. Philly had playoff success the last two seasons with Nick Foles at QB. You remember Foles; he’s the one they should have kept.
 
Philly won 4-straight to end the season, winning the NFC East (aka: the division no one wanted). They beat NYG (twice), Washington, and colossally-disappointing Dallas. Philly is a mirage.
 
Seattle has had a weird season, looking like world-beaters, but throwing out the occasional stinker that makes you scratch your head. They were only 4-4 in their noise-box of a stadium, but 7-1 on the road. Just like every year, their OL stinks.
 
I expect to see two QBs running for their lives for four quarters. No one does this quite like Russell Wilson. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf will feast on Philly’s garbage secondary.
 
Winner: Seattle

Well, we’ve dispensed with the regular season, so I’ll dispense with the preliminaries and dive right into Saturday’s action. There are two excellent matchups on tap, so hopefully we’ll get some good games.
 
Let’s go!
 
 
Saturday
 
Buffalo at Houston
 
Over and over, I’ve heard that Houston will win this game because Buffalo’s offence isn’t good enough. If only it were that simple.
 
Josh Allen has had an up-and-down season as a passer, at times inaccurate, and relying heavily on Cole “Hillbilly Edelman” Beasley and John Brown, which makes Buffalo’s passing game relatively easy to defend. The running game has been more consistent, and has allowed Buffalo to sustain drives and win close games. Allen’s athleticism and fearlessness gives the offence an added dimension that can be hard to quantify and defend. Going up against Houston’s defence, which is mediocre and doesn’t do anything particularly well, Buffalo can absolutely muster enough offence to win this game.
 
Houston’s offence is streaky, but effective. Deshaun Watson has game-changing ability, they have quality receivers, and their running game is decent enough. Unfortunately, they have the unenviable task of facing the second-best defence in the league (don’t listen when pundits say Buffalo’s defence is 3rd-best; the league ranks based on yards, but it’s points, not yards, that decide games). Buffalo’s defence is well-coached, and relies on scheme and depth rather than stars. Their secondary plays well in coverage, allowing the team to get pressure on the passer. The best hope that Houston’s offence has in this one is if they can run the ball effectively early, and if WR Will Fuller plays. Fuller is a field-stretcher, and the depth he adds to the receiving corps will go a long way towards helping free up DeAndre Hopkins, thereby helping Watson find open targets quickly enough to avoid Buffalo’s pass rush.
 
I’ve been high on this Buffalo team all season, and they absolutely have what it takes to pull off an upset here.
 
Winner: Buffalo
 
 

Tennessee at New England
 
Asking any team to go into Foxborough and win a playoff game is asking a lot. Tennessee is the underdog in this game, but should they be?
 
Tennessee has really had two seasons; pre-Tannehill, and Tannehill Time. Since the team finally pulled the plug on Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill has turned this offensive unit into one of the most efficient in the league, spreading the ball around, and unlocking the game-wrecking potential of rookie wideout AJ Brown. Throughout it all, the constant has been Derrick Henry and his superior blend of power, speed, and durability. Their defence is middle-of-the-pack; solid, if unspectacular, but certainly not awful.
 
Everyone knows what New England has done on defence this season. Everything starts with the DBs, particularly Stephon Gilmore. The strength of the defence lies in the coverage ability of the secondary, which allows New England’s no-stars front seven to get lots of pressure on the passer. The hallmark of New England defences for years has been its ability to take away what the opponent does best. This is why Tennessee’s offence presents such a challenge; it does a lot of things well. Add to that the fact that New England’s defence skews older, and is a bit banged-up, and the physicality of players like Henry and Brown, plus Tannehill’s mobility, will take a toll.
 
New England’s best hope is if its offence can move the ball, sustain drives, score points, eat up clock, and keep the other team’s offence off the field. In other words, things that they haven’t been able to do with any kind of consistency all season. Despite what you might have heard, Tom Brady has not played badly this season. However, he’s had to deal with a rash of injuries along the O-Line and at wideout. The team’s inefficient passing game, along with OL problems and the loss of FB James Develin has sapped the effectiveness of the running game. Phillip Dorsett hasn’t looked good since he was concussed by a dirty (and unflagged) hit against Philadelphia in Week 11; he’s only had 3 catches since then. The TE position has virtually no presence in the passing game. Julian Edelman has been hurt all season, and looked it, but played in every game and caught 100 balls. Why? BECAUSE HE HAD TO! No other receiver has been able to consistently step up to shoulder some of the load.
 
Of course, this is New England, and these are the playoffs, so it’s hard to rule them out in this one. The weather in Foxborough is supposed to be nasty, cold, windy, and wet. While this might seem to favour Tennessee, with Derrick Henry pounding the ball on the ground, Tannehill might struggle, which would be a boon to New England’s defence. In a contest that ends up being decided by running backs, New England’s depth makes them up to the challenge. A big game by versatile Rex Burkhead is essential for the Pats to have a chance.
 
The thing that New England really needed, more than anything, was rest, the kind you can only get from a first-round bye. That they couldn’t secure that last week against Miami tells me everything I need to know about this team. Even if the defence and/or special teams forces some turnovers, the offence does just enough, and they pull this one out, the success will be short-lived. I believe there’s an excellent chance that New England will make an early exit from this year’s post-season tournament.
 
Winner: Tennessee

By my count, there are 20 teams with nothing to play for on this, the final week of the regular season.
 
Seventeen teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Some of these, like Cincinnati, Miami, Arizona, and Washington, were hardly shocking, while teams like Atlanta, Chicago, and both LAs were surprises to varying degrees, depending on your expectations.
 
Three playoff-bound teams have nothing at stake in their Week 17 games. Baltimore are the number one seed in the AFC, while Buffalo at the fifth seed in the AFC, and Minnesota at six in the NFC, are set. They’ll be resting players if they’re smart.
 
In the NFC, only one playoff entrant remains up in the air. Either Dallas or Philadelphia will win the pathetic NFC East race, while the loser will be out.
 
In the AFC, three teams are still in play for the final playoff spot. Tennessee has the inside track, controlling their own fate with a “win and you’re in” scenario. Pittsburgh’s path is trickier, relying on the results of other games. Oakland’s labyrinthine path requires them to win, plus two other teams to lose, plus two other teams to win. Sounds crazy, but anything is possible.
 
The funny thing about all of this is, with all that’s still up for grabs this week, there are very few good games on tap. If you ask me (and, well, you’re here), your best bets for a good or entertaining game are LAC/KC (Rivers vs. Mahomes), Atlanta/Tampa (lots of scoring), Philly/NYG (potentially high-scoring), and maybe Tennessee/Houston (if KC loses, Houston has a shot at the 3-seed).
 
It should go without saying that the very last game of the season is the biggest one of all this week. It’s the reason why Flex Scheduling was invented.
 
Whatever you’re looking for this week, enjoy that last week of the regular season.
 
And thanks for reading.
 
 
Winners in Bold:
 
(It’s all) Sunday
 
Cleveland at Cincinnati
 
As Cincy has sewn up the number one pick in next year’s draft, the only things at stake here might be divisional pride and Freddie Kitchens’s job. The best thing Cleveland’s players could do here would be to tank and seal Kitchens’s fate, but when’s the last time the “mistake by the lake” has done anything smart? Expect a strong effort from class act Andy Dalton, it what will likely be his goodbye performance.
 
 
Miami at New England
 
It’s a tale as old as this rivalry: these teams love to screw each other over. Miami could do just that by beating the Pats and putting their first-round bye (and realistically, their playoff chances) at serious risk. I expect a strong effort from New England, albeit one with as little Julian Edelman as possible, as their playoff-magic waterbug needs to rest and heal.
 
 
Chicago at Minnesota
 
This has all the makings of a terribly-played game. Minnesota can’t improve their playoff position, and SHOULD be resting key players, while Chicago is missing some injured starters and has nothing to play for. Give it a miss.
 
 
LAC at KC
 
This is a game that the home team can’t afford to take lightly for a few reasons. KC can still get the number two seed if the Pats lose, and both games are being played at the same time. Also, a loss could potentially drop them to the fourth seed if Houston wins. The playing-for-nothing Bolts will be dangerous, so KC will have to play hard right out of the gate.
 
 
NYJ at Buffalo
 
Buffalo has the five-seed locked down, so they’d be crazy to let Josh Allen and some of the other starters play too much (or at all).
 
 
Green Bay at Detroit
 
Green Bay is still in play for the either one of the top two seeds, so no letting up here.
 
 
New Orleans at Carolina
 
New Orleans, see Green Bay (above).
 
 
Atlanta at Tampa
 
Looks like Dan Quinn’s players saved his job. It also looks possible that Tampa is going to make a huge mistake and keep Jameis Winston. Believe me when I say this: next season, with all of their talent on offence and defence, and with Bruce Arians coaching, Tampa challenges for the division title, if, and only if, they have a different QB. (Phillip Rivers, anyone?)
 
 
Philadelphia at NYG
 
Philly barely beat Big Blue in their last meeting, against one (checks notes) Elisha Manning. With Daniel Jones back under Center, I expect that the home team will pull out all the stops to kill their division rival’s playoff hopes. This has the potential to be a high-scoring, entertaining game.
 
 
Tennessee at Houston
 
This will be a much different game depending on what happens with LAC/KC. Either way, Tennessee can eliminate all doubt by punching their ticket to the postseason with a win.
 
 
Washington at Dallas
 
Dallas royally screwed themselves (again) by losing to Philly last week. Now, they need to win AND for Philly to lose. I’m betting that Dallas holds up their end.
 
 
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
 
With the number one seed wrapped up, the only thing for Baltimore to play for is to eliminate their hated rival. Without the home team’s offensive fireworks, I expect a hard-fought, low-scoring game.
 
 
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
 
Strangely enough, for a game that has no playoff implications for either team, an Indianapolis win would be an essential stepping stone towards a possible Oakland playoff berth. Also strange is the fact that people are still talking about Doug Marrone coming back to coach the Jags again next season, which would be insane. On the subject of coaching, Frank Reich is one of the better ones, so I expect a professional effort from his charges in this game.
 
 
Oakland at Denver
 
Oakland still has something to play for, but with their bad defence, and with Josh Jacobs iffy with a bum shoulder, it probably won’t matter.
 
 
Arizona at LAR
 
Another game that looks like a real dud. Kyler Murray is hurting, and LA has nothing to play for.
 
 
Night Game
 
San Francisco at Seattle
 
This is the type of game that the league hopes for when it schedules divisional matchups for Week 17. No matter what happens in the earlier games, both teams will have something huge to play for. Seattle, at the very least, will be playing for the NFC West crown, and a first-round home game, and depending on earlier results, could still be in play for a first-round bye (long-shot) or even top seed (loonnnggg-shot). For San Fran, it’s much simpler: a win gives them the number one seed. Loser ends up the fifth seed and goes on the road on Wild Card Weekend. Having said all that, it’ll be injuries that decide this one, and Seattle is at a distinct disadvantage. While the ‘niners will be without a couple of key players on defence, they’re still in pretty good shape, while Seattle will be without LT Duane Brown, and had to coax Marshawn Lynch out of retirement (as well as signing Robert Turbin) after losing the top three RBs on their depth chart.


And finally, this:
​

​With the playoffs just around the corner, there’s plenty of things to talk about with regards to playoff spots and playoff seeding. Add to that, the mounting debate over year-end individual awards, and there’s lots to talk about at this time of the year.
 
For my money, though, the big story this week, one that absolutely should not be overlooked, is the crazy situation in Jacksonville. If, like me, you’ve wondered why the Jags have sucked such copious amounts of ass the past two seasons after a deep playoff run in 2017, then this week’s revelations about crazy coot Tom Coughlin and the Jags organization’s treatment of players definitely sheds some light on things:

​Now, I don’t like to go crazy with numbers, but I think it bears mentioning that one team having 25% of the grievances filed against it means that the other 31 teams' average would be less than 2.5%. In other words, Jacksonville players file grievances more than ten times more frequently than the average for all the other teams in the league. That’s nuts.
 
Although the name of the “$700,000 player” was not mentioned, former Jag Dante Fowler subsequently outed himself on Twitter:

(YAY UNIONS!)


​It will be interesting to see what sanctions, if any, the Jacksonville organization and Coughlin will face. The league is quick to jump on players for any and all infractions, whether they be on or off the field. What Jacksonville did to Fowler and others is reprehensible, and should not be swept under the rug. Both Jacksonville and Coughlin should be punished severely.
 
 

​Winners in Bold:
 
 
Sunday
 
Cincinnati at Miami
 
There’s not really anything at stake here, as Cincy has a two-game cushion for the number one draft slot next year. Cincy’s defensive front will be the difference in this one.
 
 
Pittsburgh at NYJ
 
Pittsburgh can’t afford a letdown, lest Tennessee slide by them for the last Wild Card spot, so I expect a big effort from them. Still, I’m hoping for a bunch of Pittsburgh turnovers, or whatever else it takes for there to be an upset here.
 
 
NYG at Washington
 
There’s nothing at stake here, though I would like to go on record as being opposed to going back to Daniel Jones as starting QB. Not because he’s not good enough, but just the opposite. I think Jones has proven that he belongs in the league, and I believe he has a bright future, so Big Blue should shut him down for the season and let Eli play out the string.
 
 
Carolina at Indianapolis
 
Another guy who should be shut down for the season is Jacoby Brissett. He’s played really well this season, but hasn’t looked the same since he injured his knee. Indy needs to start thinking about next season.
 
 
Baltimore at Cleveland
 
Baltimore gets revenge, moves closer to the top seed in the AFC.
 
 
Jacksonville at Atlanta
 
Atlanta’s players have been playing hard of late, showing how much they want to keep Dan Quinn as their coach. With crazy old coot Tom Coughlin gone, will Jacksonville’s players play hard for Doug Marrone? I’m betting no.
 
 
New Orleans at Tennessee
 
This is one of the best matchups of the week, featuring two teams with a lot at stake. New Orleans clinched their division weeks ago, but are still in play for a top-two seed and a first-round bye. Tennessee needs to win to keep pace with Pittsburgh in the Wild Card race. I’d love to see Tennessee grind one out here, and they can do it if they can sustain drives and put the clamps on Michael Thomas.
 
 
Oakland at LAC
 
I like Anthony Lynn. With nothing left to play for, we’ll see over these final two games if his players like him.
 
 
Detroit at Denver
 
Nothing much worth seeing here.
 
 
Arizona at Seattle
 
Seattle is closing in on the top seed in the NFC, and can ill afford a letdown.
 
 
Dallas at Philadelphia
 
Dallas is the better team. Philadelphia has been mediocre at best of late. All signs point to a Dallas victory, which would secure them the NFC East, and that’s why I think they’ll lose.
 
 
Sunday Night
 
KC at Chicago
 
This will be a classic matchup of two titanically-talented young QBs, and I’m super-excited to see how I’m just kidding Trubisky sucks.
 
 
Monday Night
 
Green Bay at Minnesota
 
In the past, Minnesota has come up small in big games like this that they should win. And make no mistake, they should win this one. They’ve shown signs of late that they’ve shed their tendency to shrink from the spotlight. Green Bay will give them all they can handle, though, and this should be a great game, one that will have a tremendous effect on the playoff picture in the NFC.

San Francisco's George Kittle has become one of the best (OK, THE best) receiving TEs in football. You'll see him in action on Saturday night.

Oh yeah, he's an OK blocker, too:

​

Rejoice!
 
It took 15 weeks, but we’re finally rid of Thursday football for another season. Now, with the playoffs looming, we switch to Saturday football, which is not nearly as bad, plus it gives some playoff-bound teams an extra added benefit of getting used to playing on Saturday.
 
By some stroke of luck, we have three games being played this Saturday that have playoff implications. All of the teams in action have something to play for. Even Tampa. So, we should be able to expect big-time efforts from all the participants.
 
So, let’s dispense with the preliminaries and get to the games.
 
 
Winners in Bold:

 
Saturday
​
 
Houston at Tampa
 
A Houston win here secures the AFC South for them, no matter what Tennessee does. Tampa’s top two receivers are out, but their big-play offence could still give Houston problems. Picked by many to be one of the worst teams in the league this season, Tampa’s record sits at 7-7, so you can’t discount the motivation of finishing strong for this team.
 
 
Buffalo at New England
 
It’s amazing to say this, but Buffalo could still dethrone the Pats as AFC East champs. If that’s not a motivating factor, then I don’t know what to tell you. If New England has any hopes for a deep playoff run, they need to win this game so they can get Julian Edelman some rest. I love this Buffalo team, but New England will pull out all the stops here, and with Belichick and Co., that’s a lot of stops.
 
 
LAR at San Francisco
 
Last season’s Superb Owl appearance seems a long, long time ago for colossal disappointment LA, still technically alive, but a huge long-shot to make the playoffs. San Francisco, at 11-3, can still win its division and secure a first-round bye, but a loss here would kill that. San Fran’s balanced offence will be the deciding factor here.

It’s been a busy week, with lots of travelling and visiting family and work, with little time for much else. So, here’s a quick run-down of what I expect for this week’s games.
 
Winners in Bold:
 
Sunday
 
New England at Cincinnati
 
Cincy’s resurgent defensive front will provide a good challenge for the Pats’ perpetually-adjusting OL, but the visitors will prevail.
 
 
Tampa at Detroit
 
Tampa’s hot, Detroit’s not.
 
 
Houston at Tennessee
 
Surging Tennessee seizes control of the AFC South with another workmanlike effort.
 
 
Denver at KC
 
If KC comes out flat, they could be in trouble, and they can’t rely on the zebras to bail them out like they did last week.
 
 
Miami at NYG
 
Young Elisha Manning gets another start in place of injured Daniel Jones, but Miami is the better-coached squad. New York could make history this week by firing Pat Shurmur DURING the game.
 
 
Philadelphia at Washington
 
With Dallas hosting the LA McVays, Philly should be properly motivated for this golden opportunity.
 
 
Seattle at Carolina
 
With the dismissal of Ron Rivera, Carolina players are just phoning it in.
 
 
Chicago at Green Bay
 
Trubisky still sucks.
 
 
Minnesota at LAC
 
Some people might say that the Bolts have run out of ways to lose, but those people have run out of no faith (or something).
 
 
Jacksonville at Oakland
 
Jacksonville could make history this week by firing Doug Marrone DURING the game (unless Big Blue does it first).
 
 
Cleveland at Arizona
 
Arizona would be the interesting pick, but I think that Cleveland’s running game is the difference here.
 
 
LAR at Dallas
 
LA is on a roll, and are still in play for a playoff berth, with some help. Dallas could make history this week by firing Jason Garrett DURING pre-game warm-ups (by balloon-o-gram, if necessary).
 
 
Atlanta at San Francisco
 
San Fran is getting a suddenly offensively competent Atlanta team at a bad time, with Dee Ford, Richard Sherman, and some other key defenders Out. The home team will have to win a shootout, but fortunately for them, they’re capable.
 
 
Sunday Night
 
Buffalo at Pittsburgh
 
This is a big chance for Buffalo to prove themselves, and I believe they’re up to it.
 
 
Monday Night
 
Indianapolis at New Orleans
 
It’s been a long, drama-and-injury-filled season for Indy. New Orleans has had some ups and downs as well, but they’re simply the better team here right now.