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Week seventeen Picks: Flexing The Best For Last

12/28/2019

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Though it may not show on the stat sheet, FB Kyle Juszczyk's play has been a crucial part of San Francisco's success this season.



By my count, there are 20 teams with nothing to play for on this, the final week of the regular season.
 
Seventeen teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Some of these, like Cincinnati, Miami, Arizona, and Washington, were hardly shocking, while teams like Atlanta, Chicago, and both LAs were surprises to varying degrees, depending on your expectations.
 
Three playoff-bound teams have nothing at stake in their Week 17 games. Baltimore are the number one seed in the AFC, while Buffalo at the fifth seed in the AFC, and Minnesota at six in the NFC, are set. They’ll be resting players if they’re smart.
 
In the NFC, only one playoff entrant remains up in the air. Either Dallas or Philadelphia will win the pathetic NFC East race, while the loser will be out.
 
In the AFC, three teams are still in play for the final playoff spot. Tennessee has the inside track, controlling their own fate with a “win and you’re in” scenario. Pittsburgh’s path is trickier, relying on the results of other games. Oakland’s labyrinthine path requires them to win, plus two other teams to lose, plus two other teams to win. Sounds crazy, but anything is possible.
 
The funny thing about all of this is, with all that’s still up for grabs this week, there are very few good games on tap. If you ask me (and, well, you’re here), your best bets for a good or entertaining game are LAC/KC (Rivers vs. Mahomes), Atlanta/Tampa (lots of scoring), Philly/NYG (potentially high-scoring), and maybe Tennessee/Houston (if KC loses, Houston has a shot at the 3-seed).
 
It should go without saying that the very last game of the season is the biggest one of all this week. It’s the reason why Flex Scheduling was invented.
 
Whatever you’re looking for this week, enjoy that last week of the regular season.
 
And thanks for reading.
 
 
Winners in Bold:
 
(It’s all) Sunday
 
Cleveland at Cincinnati
 
As Cincy has sewn up the number one pick in next year’s draft, the only things at stake here might be divisional pride and Freddie Kitchens’s job. The best thing Cleveland’s players could do here would be to tank and seal Kitchens’s fate, but when’s the last time the “mistake by the lake” has done anything smart? Expect a strong effort from class act Andy Dalton, it what will likely be his goodbye performance.
 
 
Miami at New England
 
It’s a tale as old as this rivalry: these teams love to screw each other over. Miami could do just that by beating the Pats and putting their first-round bye (and realistically, their playoff chances) at serious risk. I expect a strong effort from New England, albeit one with as little Julian Edelman as possible, as their playoff-magic waterbug needs to rest and heal.
 
 
Chicago at Minnesota
 
This has all the makings of a terribly-played game. Minnesota can’t improve their playoff position, and SHOULD be resting key players, while Chicago is missing some injured starters and has nothing to play for. Give it a miss.
 
 
LAC at KC
 
This is a game that the home team can’t afford to take lightly for a few reasons. KC can still get the number two seed if the Pats lose, and both games are being played at the same time. Also, a loss could potentially drop them to the fourth seed if Houston wins. The playing-for-nothing Bolts will be dangerous, so KC will have to play hard right out of the gate.
 
 
NYJ at Buffalo
 
Buffalo has the five-seed locked down, so they’d be crazy to let Josh Allen and some of the other starters play too much (or at all).
 
 
Green Bay at Detroit
 
Green Bay is still in play for the either one of the top two seeds, so no letting up here.
 
 
New Orleans at Carolina
 
New Orleans, see Green Bay (above).
 
 
Atlanta at Tampa
 
Looks like Dan Quinn’s players saved his job. It also looks possible that Tampa is going to make a huge mistake and keep Jameis Winston. Believe me when I say this: next season, with all of their talent on offence and defence, and with Bruce Arians coaching, Tampa challenges for the division title, if, and only if, they have a different QB. (Phillip Rivers, anyone?)
 
 
Philadelphia at NYG
 
Philly barely beat Big Blue in their last meeting, against one (checks notes) Elisha Manning. With Daniel Jones back under Center, I expect that the home team will pull out all the stops to kill their division rival’s playoff hopes. This has the potential to be a high-scoring, entertaining game.
 
 
Tennessee at Houston
 
This will be a much different game depending on what happens with LAC/KC. Either way, Tennessee can eliminate all doubt by punching their ticket to the postseason with a win.
 
 
Washington at Dallas
 
Dallas royally screwed themselves (again) by losing to Philly last week. Now, they need to win AND for Philly to lose. I’m betting that Dallas holds up their end.
 
 
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
 
With the number one seed wrapped up, the only thing for Baltimore to play for is to eliminate their hated rival. Without the home team’s offensive fireworks, I expect a hard-fought, low-scoring game.
 
 
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
 
Strangely enough, for a game that has no playoff implications for either team, an Indianapolis win would be an essential stepping stone towards a possible Oakland playoff berth. Also strange is the fact that people are still talking about Doug Marrone coming back to coach the Jags again next season, which would be insane. On the subject of coaching, Frank Reich is one of the better ones, so I expect a professional effort from his charges in this game.
 
 
Oakland at Denver
 
Oakland still has something to play for, but with their bad defence, and with Josh Jacobs iffy with a bum shoulder, it probably won’t matter.
 
 
Arizona at LAR
 
Another game that looks like a real dud. Kyler Murray is hurting, and LA has nothing to play for.
 
 
Night Game
 
San Francisco at Seattle
 
This is the type of game that the league hopes for when it schedules divisional matchups for Week 17. No matter what happens in the earlier games, both teams will have something huge to play for. Seattle, at the very least, will be playing for the NFC West crown, and a first-round home game, and depending on earlier results, could still be in play for a first-round bye (long-shot) or even top seed (loonnnggg-shot). For San Fran, it’s much simpler: a win gives them the number one seed. Loser ends up the fifth seed and goes on the road on Wild Card Weekend. Having said all that, it’ll be injuries that decide this one, and Seattle is at a distinct disadvantage. While the ‘niners will be without a couple of key players on defence, they’re still in pretty good shape, while Seattle will be without LT Duane Brown, and had to coax Marshawn Lynch out of retirement (as well as signing Robert Turbin) after losing the top three RBs on their depth chart.


And finally, this:
​

This is awesome... Matthew Stafford and his wife Kelly surprised three young boys who recently lost their father by showing up to their house with Christmas presents.

Stafford even played them in Madden, as himself. □□ (via Deana Harb/FB) pic.twitter.com/isVoTWUUdd

— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) December 25, 2019
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Week Sixteen Picks: Wishful Thinking

12/21/2019

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Daniel or Eli? I believe that Jones is the future, and that Manning should play out the string, but the team disagrees.


​With the playoffs just around the corner, there’s plenty of things to talk about with regards to playoff spots and playoff seeding. Add to that, the mounting debate over year-end individual awards, and there’s lots to talk about at this time of the year.
 
For my money, though, the big story this week, one that absolutely should not be overlooked, is the crazy situation in Jacksonville. If, like me, you’ve wondered why the Jags have sucked such copious amounts of ass the past two seasons after a deep playoff run in 2017, then this week’s revelations about crazy coot Tom Coughlin and the Jags organization’s treatment of players definitely sheds some light on things:

“25% of the grievances filed by players in the entire league have been filed against the Jaguars.”
Wow. https://t.co/xnqxN7ArnA

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 16, 2019


​Now, I don’t like to go crazy with numbers, but I think it bears mentioning that one team having 25% of the grievances filed against it means that the other 31 teams' average would be less than 2.5%. In other words, Jacksonville players file grievances more than ten times more frequently than the average for all the other teams in the league. That’s nuts.
 
Although the name of the “$700,000 player” was not mentioned, former Jag Dante Fowler subsequently outed himself on Twitter:

They literally hated me . I got it all back though! Thanks to the NFLPA https://t.co/vUIg5tsKvr

— Dante fowler (@dantefowler) December 16, 2019
(YAY UNIONS!)


​It will be interesting to see what sanctions, if any, the Jacksonville organization and Coughlin will face. The league is quick to jump on players for any and all infractions, whether they be on or off the field. What Jacksonville did to Fowler and others is reprehensible, and should not be swept under the rug. Both Jacksonville and Coughlin should be punished severely.
 
 

​Winners in Bold:
 
 
Sunday
 
Cincinnati at Miami
 
There’s not really anything at stake here, as Cincy has a two-game cushion for the number one draft slot next year. Cincy’s defensive front will be the difference in this one.
 
 
Pittsburgh at NYJ
 
Pittsburgh can’t afford a letdown, lest Tennessee slide by them for the last Wild Card spot, so I expect a big effort from them. Still, I’m hoping for a bunch of Pittsburgh turnovers, or whatever else it takes for there to be an upset here.
 
 
NYG at Washington
 
There’s nothing at stake here, though I would like to go on record as being opposed to going back to Daniel Jones as starting QB. Not because he’s not good enough, but just the opposite. I think Jones has proven that he belongs in the league, and I believe he has a bright future, so Big Blue should shut him down for the season and let Eli play out the string.
 
 
Carolina at Indianapolis
 
Another guy who should be shut down for the season is Jacoby Brissett. He’s played really well this season, but hasn’t looked the same since he injured his knee. Indy needs to start thinking about next season.
 
 
Baltimore at Cleveland
 
Baltimore gets revenge, moves closer to the top seed in the AFC.
 
 
Jacksonville at Atlanta
 
Atlanta’s players have been playing hard of late, showing how much they want to keep Dan Quinn as their coach. With crazy old coot Tom Coughlin gone, will Jacksonville’s players play hard for Doug Marrone? I’m betting no.
 
 
New Orleans at Tennessee
 
This is one of the best matchups of the week, featuring two teams with a lot at stake. New Orleans clinched their division weeks ago, but are still in play for a top-two seed and a first-round bye. Tennessee needs to win to keep pace with Pittsburgh in the Wild Card race. I’d love to see Tennessee grind one out here, and they can do it if they can sustain drives and put the clamps on Michael Thomas.
 
 
Oakland at LAC
 
I like Anthony Lynn. With nothing left to play for, we’ll see over these final two games if his players like him.
 
 
Detroit at Denver
 
Nothing much worth seeing here.
 
 
Arizona at Seattle
 
Seattle is closing in on the top seed in the NFC, and can ill afford a letdown.
 
 
Dallas at Philadelphia
 
Dallas is the better team. Philadelphia has been mediocre at best of late. All signs point to a Dallas victory, which would secure them the NFC East, and that’s why I think they’ll lose.
 
 
Sunday Night
 
KC at Chicago
 
This will be a classic matchup of two titanically-talented young QBs, and I’m super-excited to see how I’m just kidding Trubisky sucks.
 
 
Monday Night
 
Green Bay at Minnesota
 
In the past, Minnesota has come up small in big games like this that they should win. And make no mistake, they should win this one. They’ve shown signs of late that they’ve shed their tendency to shrink from the spotlight. Green Bay will give them all they can handle, though, and this should be a great game, one that will have a tremendous effect on the playoff picture in the NFC.

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Saturday Spectacular Quick Picks: Week Sixteen

12/20/2019

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George Kittle has become such an offensive force, it often seems that the only way for one defender to stop him is to play dirty.


San Francisco's George Kittle has become one of the best (OK, THE best) receiving TEs in football. You'll see him in action on Saturday night.

Oh yeah, he's an OK blocker, too:

​

Man, Kittle is such a piss poor blocker pic.twitter.com/3aIHh5Ynv4

— Schmitty (@tyschmit) December 15, 2019


Rejoice!
 
It took 15 weeks, but we’re finally rid of Thursday football for another season. Now, with the playoffs looming, we switch to Saturday football, which is not nearly as bad, plus it gives some playoff-bound teams an extra added benefit of getting used to playing on Saturday.
 
By some stroke of luck, we have three games being played this Saturday that have playoff implications. All of the teams in action have something to play for. Even Tampa. So, we should be able to expect big-time efforts from all the participants.
 
So, let’s dispense with the preliminaries and get to the games.
 
 
Winners in Bold:

 
Saturday
​

 
Houston at Tampa
 
A Houston win here secures the AFC South for them, no matter what Tennessee does. Tampa’s top two receivers are out, but their big-play offence could still give Houston problems. Picked by many to be one of the worst teams in the league this season, Tampa’s record sits at 7-7, so you can’t discount the motivation of finishing strong for this team.
 
 
Buffalo at New England
 
It’s amazing to say this, but Buffalo could still dethrone the Pats as AFC East champs. If that’s not a motivating factor, then I don’t know what to tell you. If New England has any hopes for a deep playoff run, they need to win this game so they can get Julian Edelman some rest. I love this Buffalo team, but New England will pull out all the stops here, and with Belichick and Co., that’s a lot of stops.
 
 
LAR at San Francisco
 
Last season’s Superb Owl appearance seems a long, long time ago for colossal disappointment LA, still technically alive, but a huge long-shot to make the playoffs. San Francisco, at 11-3, can still win its division and secure a first-round bye, but a loss here would kill that. San Fran’s balanced offence will be the deciding factor here.

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Week Fifteen Picks: Playoff Races Intensify

12/14/2019

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You can question the quality of the players, but you can't question how hard Brian Flores has gotten them to play for him.


It’s been a busy week, with lots of travelling and visiting family and work, with little time for much else. So, here’s a quick run-down of what I expect for this week’s games.
 
Winners in Bold:
 
Sunday
 
New England at Cincinnati
 
Cincy’s resurgent defensive front will provide a good challenge for the Pats’ perpetually-adjusting OL, but the visitors will prevail.
 
 
Tampa at Detroit
 
Tampa’s hot, Detroit’s not.
 
 
Houston at Tennessee
 
Surging Tennessee seizes control of the AFC South with another workmanlike effort.
 
 
Denver at KC
 
If KC comes out flat, they could be in trouble, and they can’t rely on the zebras to bail them out like they did last week.
 
 
Miami at NYG
 
Young Elisha Manning gets another start in place of injured Daniel Jones, but Miami is the better-coached squad. New York could make history this week by firing Pat Shurmur DURING the game.
 
 
Philadelphia at Washington
 
With Dallas hosting the LA McVays, Philly should be properly motivated for this golden opportunity.
 
 
Seattle at Carolina
 
With the dismissal of Ron Rivera, Carolina players are just phoning it in.
 
 
Chicago at Green Bay
 
Trubisky still sucks.
 
 
Minnesota at LAC
 
Some people might say that the Bolts have run out of ways to lose, but those people have run out of no faith (or something).
 
 
Jacksonville at Oakland
 
Jacksonville could make history this week by firing Doug Marrone DURING the game (unless Big Blue does it first).
 
 
Cleveland at Arizona
 
Arizona would be the interesting pick, but I think that Cleveland’s running game is the difference here.
 
 
LAR at Dallas
 
LA is on a roll, and are still in play for a playoff berth, with some help. Dallas could make history this week by firing Jason Garrett DURING pre-game warm-ups (by balloon-o-gram, if necessary).
 
 
Atlanta at San Francisco
 
San Fran is getting a suddenly offensively competent Atlanta team at a bad time, with Dee Ford, Richard Sherman, and some other key defenders Out. The home team will have to win a shootout, but fortunately for them, they’re capable.
 
 
Sunday Night
 
Buffalo at Pittsburgh
 
This is a big chance for Buffalo to prove themselves, and I believe they’re up to it.
 
 
Monday Night
 
Indianapolis at New Orleans
 
It’s been a long, drama-and-injury-filled season for Indy. New Orleans has had some ups and downs as well, but they’re simply the better team here right now.

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Thursday Night (Very) Quick Pick: NYJ at Baltimore

12/12/2019

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Justin Tucker is just about as close to automatic as it gets for an NFL Kicker. Seriously, who would you rather send out there with the game on the line?


I’m travelling this week, doing some pre-Christmas family visiting. We packed some gifts, our Santa hats and festive Christmas sweaters, and we’re seeing some people we won’t be able to visit over the holidays. Fortunately, this week’s Thursday game is, at least on paper, a mismatch.
 
So…
 
Thursday Night
 
NYJ at Baltimore
 
Baltimore has already clinched a playoff spot, looks like a lock to win the AFC North, and has the inside track for the number one seed in their conference. Meanwhile, Gangrene has shown a few flashes of competence this season, but has been riddled with injuries, and has mostly stunk this year. And don’t even get me started on Le’Veon (Bowling) Bell.
 
Winner: Baltimore                                   
​
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Week Fourteen Picks: High Stakes, Low Stakes, and No Stakes

12/7/2019

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Backup QB Elisha Manning, right, looks to be deviously plotting to usurp Daniel Jones's spot as starter.


My new work schedule is kicking my ass, and I barely have time for much this week, so I’ll dispense with the preliminaries and get right to the picks. As we get closer to the end, that means the stakes are getting really high for some teams, but it also means that there are going to be more and more games that don’t mean a whole hell of a lot.
 
 
Winners in Bold:
 
Sunday
 
Carolina at Atlanta
 
I liked Ron Rivera. I think the players did, too. Neither of these teams are relevant.
 
 
Indianapolis at Tampa
 
Tampa is playing pretty well lately. Indy has kind of faltered, as injuries have limited their effectiveness, but I’m willing to bet that they will give their all this week in order to stave off playoff elimination.
 
 
Miami at NYJ
 
Brian Flores continues to get this Miami team to lay it on the line for him, and that’s amazing. Gangrene is a mess. I’m picking the fun team.
 
 
San Francisco at New Orleans
 
San Fran lost a close one to the best team they’ve faced this year, and there’s no shame in that. This should be a good, close game. I like San Fran here, so long as Jimmy G can protect the ball.
 
 
Detroit at Minnesota
 
Minnesota Minnesota-ed itself out of a potential win last week in a big game against Seattle, which should be self-explanatory at this point. That being said, they should be able to handle Detroit, but don’t rule anything out, as this Detroit team plays hard and has nothing to lose.
 
 
Denver at Houston
 
Say what you want about New England’s flu-depleted roster last week, but Houston stepped up and played hard, and earned their victory. Denver shouldn’t be a match for Houston.
 
 
Baltimore at Buffalo
 
This is the game I’m most looking forward to this week. Buffalo is coming off a defining win in Dallas on Thursgiving, and are well-rested. Baltimore’s offence has been on a torrid pace for the past month-or-so, but San Fran managed to slow them down a bit last week. Buffalo absolutely has the defence to hold Lamar Jackson and Co. The key, as it was against Dallas, is for Buffalo’s improving offence to sustain drives and score points, and for Josh Allen to avoid turnovers. I think Buffalo can pull this one off. I mostly just hope it’s a really good game.
 
 
Cincinnati at Cleveland
 
Cleveland is basically done. Cincy is playing the role of spoiler. Disrespected Andy Dalton came back last week to threaten Cincy’s inside track on the number one pick in 2020. Lots of intrigue here, but no real playoff implications.
 
 
Washington at Green Bay
 
It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Green Bay doesn’t cream these guys.
 
 
LAC at Jacksonville
 
The Bolts could certainly lay claim to the title of most disappointing team in the league this season. Jacksonville’s been plenty disappointing, too, but we’ve come to expect that by now. This is an utterly meaningless game, which probably favours LA because at least they play hard.
 
 
Pittsburgh at Arizona
 
Mike Tomlin is incredible. Somehow, with all the drama, all the egos, all the injuries, whatever shit gets thrown at him, he manages it, and he gets this team to win. Arizona has played well above expectations, but Pittsburgh’s pass rush will make life miserable for young Kyler Murray in this one.
 
 
Tennessee at Oakland
 
Oakland is starting to unravel after looking strong for a bit. Tennessee is really hitting its stride, and should grind Oakland into submission with strong defence and punishing running.
 
 
KC at New England
 
New England knows what to do to stop KC’s offence. If the Pats’ offence can’t stay healthy enough to do its part, that’ll only get them so far.
 
 
Sunday Night
 
Seattle at LAR
 
So, LA beat up on Arizona last week. Big deal. Do it against Seattle, and we’ll talk. I’m betting they can’t.
 
 
Monday Night
 
NYG at Philadelphia
 
With Daniel Jones hobbling around with an ankle injury, Big Blue must turn to its backup QB, young up-and-comer <checks notes> Elisha Manning. With the way Philly has been struggling lately, Jones had better hope that Elisha doesn’t do too well, lest Jones lose his starting job to the 2nd-string signal-caller.

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Thursday Night Quick Pick: Dallas at Chicago

12/5/2019

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Dallas Long-Snapper LP Ladouceur is set to become Dallas's All-Time Iron Man.


​For as much as I bag on Thursday football, I wanted to use this opportunity to talk about someone who probably doesn’t get very much attention: Dallas Long-Snapper LP (Louis-Philippe) Ladouceur.
 
You’d have to say that Ladouceur was a long-shot to make the NFL. He grew up in Montreal. After receiving scholarship offers from a number of US colleges, he went to UC, Berkeley. After playing on Special Teams as a LS for his tenure there, he went undrafted in 2005, eventually signing with New Orleans, which promptly cut him. No one picked him up.
 
Due to back-to-back games in the Bay Area against San Fran and Oakland in Weeks 3 and 4, Dallas decided to stay in California. They were having problems with their rookie LS, so they decided to give Ladouceur (who lived in the Bay Area) a tryout, and he made his debut against Oakland. He played well that game, and for the rest of the season, and he’s kept the job ever since.
 
This is Ladouceur’s 15th season. He is 38, has never missed a game, and he is set to become Dallas’s all-time Iron Man. Anyone who knows football knows how important a position LS is, and to stay in the league that long, and with one team, is a tribute to consistency.
 
After a 6-year wait, Ladouceur finally became a US citizen in September of this year.
 
Congratulations, LP Ladouceur!
 
 
OK, enough with the touchy-feely stuff.
 
Here are the leaders (plus a few notable challengers) for each division through Week 13:
 
AFC East: New England 10-2 (Buffalo 9-3)
AFC North: Baltimore 10-2
AFC South: Houston 8-4 (Tennessee 7-5)
AFC West: KC 8-4
NFC North: Green Bay 9-3 (Minnesota 8-4)
NFC South: New Orleans 10-2
NFC West: Seattle 10-2 (San Fran 10-2)
 
Wait… I forgot about the NFC East’s scintillating race between Dallas and Philly:

The Cowboys and Eagles racing for the top spot in the NFC East... pic.twitter.com/HC9TK4xn0S

— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) December 1, 2019


Thursday Night
 
Dallas at Chicago
 
It’s somehow fitting that these two teams are playing their second straight Thursday games, because these two teams ARE Thursday football. I shouldn’t be talking about Thursday football, and I really shouldn’t be talking about these two teams. The only reason Dallas is relevant is because they play in the dumpster-fire-awful NFC East, which they lead at 6-6. Chicago isn’t relevant at all. The league is going to promote this game as a good matchup, but it really isn’t. Dallas, for all their struggles, has a pretty good team, at least on paper. Whatever you might think about their loss to Buffalo last week, or whatever the idiots who cover the NFL tell you, Dallas simply got dominated by a much better team. As much as the league is going to try to sell Chicago as a team like Buffalo, let me tell you, Chicago ain’t Buffalo. Besides the fact that Buffalo has a much better offence than Chicago in every aspect, Buffalo’s defence is better too. I would be very surprised if Dallas doesn’t beat Chicago by a wide margin. However, this is Thursday, so who knows?
 
Winner: Dallas
​
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