Week Eight Picks

Winner in Bold

Sunday

Minnesota at Cleveland (UK)
Fun fact: I have never watched one of these games in England. On that note, if you think I’m getting up early on a Sunday morning to watch the Browns you’re fucked in the head.
 
Oakland at Buffalo
As I’ve said previously, the Raiders are just a different team when Derek Carr is on the field. Completely.
 
Indianapolis at Cincinnati
I like Jacoby Brissett, and I think he has a shot at being a starter somewhere. I hope he gets a chance to be the man for some team. Cincy had better be careful and not sleep on this guy.
 
LAC at New England
The Pats seem like they’re putting it together on defence (is it just me, or did the secondary look better when Stephon Gilmore was out?). This one is no gimme; the Chargers are good, better than most people think.
 
Chicago at New Orleans
This is a scrappy Bears squad that has found ways to win. Having said that, the “Have the QB throw seven passes and the rookie DB will score two defensive TDs” plan for success seems unsustainable.
 
Atlanta at NYJ
Sometimes, when you’re struggling, as the Falcons are, getting away from home helps take some of the pressure off.
 
San Francisco at Philadelphia
I would have a difficult time picking against the Eagles right now. If they stay healthy, they’re not losing many more games this season.
 
Carolina at Tampa
The Panthers are a streaky bunch. I could definitely see Cam Newton having a big day against Tampa’s defence.
 
Houston at Seattle
We’re going to find out a lot about Deshaun Watson in this game. He’s been pretty spectacular so far.
 
Dallas at Washington
Washington is better than I thought they would be. Dallas is not as good as I thought they would be.
 
Pittsburgh at Detroit
I’m still not sold on Pittsburgh, and I think Roethlisberger is hanging on by a thread, but the Steelers’ defence is really getting after it lately, and that should be the difference.
 

Monday Night
 
Denver at Kansas City
KC really fell off that pedestal in a hurry, losing twice in five days. Denver is a mess on offence. This has all the makings of an ugly game. Oh, and I really wish that everyone who has ever said, or whoever plans on saying, that Andy Reid is a great Head Coach, would go take a flying fucking leap. He is, at best, a good offensive coordinator. He should never, ever have the final say on anything once the game has begun. His entire career as a Head Coach is a testament to this fact.

Week Eight

Thursday Night

Miami at Baltimore
 
When Ryan Tannehill was injured last season, Matt Moore stepped in, preserving a victory against Arizona, then winning two starts against the Jets and Bills to get Miami into the playoffs. Moore lost his last two starts, against superior teams; the season finale against the Pats, and a playoff game against the Steelers. Moore’s a gamer, and he showed it.

So, when Tannehill was hurt in the preseason this year, did the Dolphins turn to the guy who so ably filled in last year, who had been with the team since 2011, and who knows the offence? Nope. In typical Dolphins fashion, they coaxed Jay Cutler out of retirement and handed him the starting QB job. Real head-scratcher, what?

Miami has won its last two games by coming back after falling behind early. I watched last week’s game against the Jets, and the Dolphins looked lost and unprepared early, particularly on offence. They really came together after Cutler got hurt and Moore entered the game. Poor preparation, falling behind early, these are hallmarks of poor coaching. Between that, and the whole Cutler thing, I have to wonder if Adam Gase is cut out to be a Head Coach.

The Ravens are not very good, and they have a lot of injuries. They haven’t scored an offensive TD since the 2nd quarter of their Week 5 game against the EJ Manuel-QBed Raiders. Even at home, they are ripe for the picking against a talented team like the Dolphins.
​
That was a great comeback last Sunday, Matt. I hope you play well tonight. I have a bad feeling that, even if you win, with ten days off until the next game, you’ll probably be back on the bench and Cutler will be the starter again. Whatever happens, I believe in you. You’re my fella, my guy.

Winner: Miami

I’m posting all my picks on Thursday, as I will be indisposed this weekend. Before I get to the picks, though, I wanted to briefly touch on something.

In my column two weeks ago, I asked the question, “Are there any really, really good teams?” Writing about then-undefeated KC, I opined that “…they look(ed) pretty good, but hardly great,” and that, “(t)here’s a bunch of 3-1 teams that have been good, bad, and extremely lucky, depending on the week and the opponent.”

I only bring this up because I saw earlier this week where a very popular football column declared this season, “A Mishmash of Mediocrity, Where No Team is Great…,” and where a columnist on another popular website wrote that, “There is no Best Team in the NFL,” and that there were, “no great teams, just a bunch of flawed ones.”

Seems just like old times for me, where I’m just a little bit ahead of the experts. Try to keep up, guys.

Boy, do I wish I could do this for a living.


 
Week Seven Picks

Winner in Bold
 

Thursday Night
 
Kansas City at Oakland
If we learned anything about KC this past Sunday, it’s that they lose when they play like crap. And yes, Pittsburgh played well, but KC, and especially Alex Smith, played like crap. Not sure what’s going on with the Raiders, but I doubt that they can hang with KC, unless of course KC plays like crap. It happens.
 


Sunday
 
Tampa at Buffalo
I have a funny feeling that Buffalo’s defence will smother Tampa’s offence.
 
Carolina at Chicago
Kudos to the Bears for making me look so smart last week, despite almost blowing it on special teams. At this stage, they’re probably good enough to hang with Carolina for a bit, but Cam Newton isn’t Joe Flacco.
 
Tennessee at Cleveland
I’d pick the Titans even if Cassel started. It’s the Browns.
 
New Orleans at Green Bay
No one player is as important as the whole team, unless he happens to be the only reason the team wins. You know what I mean.
 
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
With their suffocating defence and ball-control offence, the Jags are going to beat a lot of teams. They’re not built to come from behind, though, not with Blake Bortles, so giving up two TDs on special teams is pretty much a losing formula for them.
 
Arizona at LAR
Adrian Peterson gave the Cards an element on offence last week that they’ve been missing, and Tampa got ambushed. No surprises this week, Rams. You know what’s coming.
 
NYJ at Miami
Could the Dolphins finally be putting it together? Jay Cutler looked positively engaged during the second half comeback in Atlanta last week, and Miami’s ground game got going (#Alliteration).  Also, Degenerate Gambler Alert: Jets must lose!
 
Baltimore at Minnesota
The Ravens scored two special teams TDs last week and still lost. That’s how bad their offence is.
 
Dallas at San Francisco
San Fran keeps finding ways to lose close games. It’s mesmerizing.
 
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
There’re a lot of people that are pretty high on the Steelers right now after their Week Six takedown of KC. I’m not one of them. As much as Pittsburgh dominated KC, and as poorly as KC played, the Steelers should have blown them out. Having said that, Cincy just isn’t good enough.
 
Denver at LAC
Funny feeling #2: Chargers generally win close or lose close; I’m choosing “win” this time.
 
Seattle at NYG
Prime candidate for most boring game of the week.
 

Sunday Night
 
Atlanta at New England
Much anticipated rematch between the opponents in last year’s Greatest Superb Owl ever, one of which blew a 17-0 lead at home against the friggin’ Dolphins last week, while the other gives up passing yardage by the mile. How the mighty have fallen.
 


Monday Night
 
Washington at Philadelphia
I was very impressed with Carson Wentz last week against Carolina (thanks for making me look so smart, Wentz). Philly looks like the class of NFC East, and might end up being the top team in the NFC if they keep going the way they have been.

Week Six Picks

Winner in Bold

Sunday
 
Chicago at Baltimore
I watched Trubisky’s debut last week, and was impressed with his poise and presence. I know I should pick Baltimore here, but they haven’t beaten anyone good yet, and I have this stupid hunch that I can’t shake.

Cleveland at Houston
What team would Cleveland be favoured to beat right now? Anyone?

Green Bay at Minnesota
The way he’s been playing, it’s a fool’s errand picking against Aaron Rodgers right now.
 
Miami at Atlanta
This looks like a mismatch, but this Falcons team hasn’t much resembled last year’s powerhouse.

New England at NYJ
The Jets always get up for the Pats, but I’m not too worried about this one.
 
San Francisco at Washington
I picked the ‘niners the past two weeks, and they lost in OT both times. That’s about it for me.
 
Tampa at Arizona
Have I mentioned lately that the Cards stink? I’m sure I have.
 
LAR at Jacksonville
Similarities: both teams run the ball well, can’t stop the run, and get a lot of pressure on the QB. The Jags have won by being careful with the ball and by taking it away from the other team. Oh, and Leonard Fournette is one of my new favourite players. You know why.

​Pittsburgh at Kansas City
Damn, the Steelers’ mystique all to hell; this one has huge blowout potential.
 
LAC at Oakland
Carr is expected to start. The entire team seems lost when he doesn’t play.
 
NYG at Denver
Can you catch a football? The Giants would like to hear from you. Are you currently a defensive back for the Giants? The team would definitely NOT like to hear from you. (In a related opinion, only the moronic Maras would stick by the hopeless McAdoo this long. Which New York team is the one that’s supposed to be tanking again?)
 


​Monday Night

Indianapolis at Tennessee
The Titans have been a disappointment thus far, and are truly hopeless without Mariota. He wants to play this week. I’ve heard that there’s some doubt that he will play this week. The injury report says “Questionable,” which is not as good as “Probable,” but better than “Doubtful.” This is a “Mariota plays” pick.

Week Five

Thursday Night

Philadelphia at Carolina

Carolina seems to be the safe pick here; the offence has been on a roll the past couple of weeks, Cam Newton is playing more like an MVP, the defence has played well, and they're playing at home. I've got a funny feeling about this one, though. The 4-1 Eagles have played well also, particularly on offence. Statistically, Philly's pass defence looks a bit suspect, but a lot of the yards it's given up have been late in games, when opponents have been forced into pass-heavy catch-up mode. Carolina's recent offensive resurgence has been almost exclusively in the passing game; the team has been mostly ineffective running the ball. I believe that Philly's defence should be able to contain Carolina's ground game without devoting extra personnel, allowing the Eagles to focus more on stopping Newton and the Panthers' passing attack. As an extra added micro-advantage, Philadelphia enters this short-rest Thursday contest following an easy victory over the weakling Arizona Cardinals, unlike Carolina, which is coming off a much more competitive tilt against the Detroit Lions.

So, if you're looking for a reason to bet the Eagles, there you go.

Winner: Philadelphia

On Friday, as I often do, I was checking my TV Guide to see which games I was going to watch on Sunday. I looked at the early games. “Yuck,” I thought, “what a horrible bunch of games. Is there anything there even worth watching?” I can’t really say that there is. Every game I look at either has two terrible teams that I don’t want to watch, or a decent team matched up against a dud, or a couple of mediocre teams. It makes it pretty hard to pick games.

So what’s the problem? Ask yourself this: Are there any really, really good teams? There’s KC, the only unbeaten team left after only four weeks; they look pretty good, but hardly great. There’s a bunch of 3-1 teams that have been good, bad, and extremely lucky, depending on the week and the opponent. And of course, there’s always the key injuries. Looking forward to watching Matt Cassel under center for the Titans, or EJ Manuel for the Raiders? (Aside: That Carr injury was particularly painful for me, as the Raiders’ failure to cover last week cost me 320 bucks… and don’t even get me started on how close my wife and I came to winning $1300 on our shared pool… that one would have been nice.) That’s not what I signed up for. If you’d asked me four weeks ago, I’d have said that I was really pumped for this week’s Packers-Cowboys tilt, but with Green Bay so banged-up on offence, and Dallas so generally underwhelming, I can’t say that the game will even be good.

Fortunately, there’s a pretty good Sunday Night game to look forward to. At least I hope it is. Rookie QB Deshaun Watson has been electric the past two weeks, awakening the moribund Texans’ offence. However, he worked his magic against the Swiss Cheese Pats’ defence, and against a Titans team that turned the ball over five times, so I’m reserving my excitement. It’ll be interesting to see how Watson and Co. perform against KC. I just hope that it’s a competitive game. Oh, and that when Collinsworth talks about Tyreek Hill, they only show him from the waist up.
 

Week Five Picks

Winner in Bold

Sunday

San Francisco at Indianapolis
San Fran almost got it done last week, but lost in OT. There’s no Larry Fitzgerald in Indy.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
I can’t figure the Jags out. This is a game they should lose, though.

Buffalo at Cincinnati
Buffalo is coming off upset wins over Denver and Atlanta, but for some insane reason I think Cincy’s defence eats Tyrod Taylor’s lunch.

Tennessee at Miami
Hardest pick of the week. Matt Cassel?!? Jay Cutler?!? What a nightmare.

NYJ at Cleveland
Warning: Degenerate gambler wish pick… the Jets are coming dangerously close to ruining my futures pool. I need a win here, Browns.

LAC at NYG
Here’s another hot garbage game. Picking the Chargers because they’ll get pressure on Manning, while Rivers should operate from a clean pocket with Vernon and JPP hurt.

Carolina at Detroit
I love Cam, but I’m not buying into the idea that he’s ok just because he beat the Pats.

Arizona at Philadelphia
The Cards are 2-2, but they probably should be 0-4.

Baltimore at Oakland
I’m not picking FOR EJ Manuel; I’m picking AGAINST Joe Flacco. Go get him, Khalil.

Seattle at LAR
The Rams’ offence has gotten better, the Seahawks’ offensive line is a mess, and the Rams can get after the QB.

Green Bay at Dallas
The Packers have too many injuries on offence. I think that this is week the Cowboys get their offence going.

Kansas City at Houston
I don’t believe in Deshaun Watson. Yet.
 

Monday Night

Minnesota at Chicago
Trubisky gets the start at QB for the Bears. Sounds like Turkey. Happy Thanksgiving, Canada. Welcome to the league, rook.

Tonight's column brought to you by Oikos.

Oikos: The Greek Yogurt that's high in protein, but low in misogyny. No more Oikos for you, Cam. Now go to your room.


Week Five

Thursday Night

New England at Tampa

So, everyone's talking about how terrible the Pats' defence has been so far this season, and having seen all four of their games, I can confirm that they have been as bad as advertised. Every QB that has faced them has thrown for over 300 yards, and has looked good doing it. I really hope the Pats get their shit together, at least to some degree, for tonight's game. After already having had to endure Cris Collinsworth practically coming in his pants talking about how fast Tyreek Hill is during the Week One Thursday-Nighter, I just hate the thought of Tony Romo gushing over the scintillating play of a probable rapist. Come on, Pats; do it in  the name of decency.

Winner: New England (hopefully)

Another week. Another great idea. Another great column written in my head while driving, but no time to write and edit. Such is my life these days.

Anyway, here's hoping for a better week picking than last week's fiasco. With the Jets and Bills both winning, plus a bunch of other upsets, I was a couple of late scores (including an absolute bomb of a 61 yard field goal, sorry Giants' fans... NOT!) away from my worst week ever. And here's hoping for a week with a little less stupid. The game is on the field, and everything else is just pageantry and bullshit.


Week Four Picks

Winner in Bold

New Orleans at Miami (but, at Wembley, so just a little further east than South Florida)
Hate both of these teams, but Miami is a bit banged-up on defence.

Carolina at New England
Cam Newton doesn't look good enough right now to exploit the Pats' ragged defence.

Jacksonville at NYJ
Wille the real Jags please stand up? Please?!?

Tennessee at Houston
This is a great chance for the Titans to seize control of the AFC South, and establish themselves as one of the front runners in the conference.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Hopefully Big (feeling) Ben can dry his tears long enough to lead (HA!) his team to victory against the injury-depleted Poe-birds.

Cincinnati at Cleveland
Just thinking about how much the Browns suck, and continue to suck, and deserve to suck, reminds me of a funny quote I read last year: "Many fans think that the Cleveland Browns are named for the color that appears on their helmet and jerseys. But actually, “Cleveland” is just the name of the city where they play."

Detroit at Minnesota
Maybe Case Keeneum IS good enough.

LAR at Dallas
Hard to pick against Dallas as home, but I'm a little leery of this one.

Buffalo at Atlanta
Massacre.

Philadelphia at LAC
No one in LA cares about the Chargers. The Eagles could end up division champs when this season is over.

San Francisco at Arizona
Yuck! Does this even qualify as an "upset special?" I'm upset at the prospect of anyone having to watch this dreck.

NYG at Tampa
I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the Gothamites going 0-4. Giants hang a big number on Tampa's banged-up (and overrated) defence.

Oakland at Denver
Tricky, tricky. With Crabtree hurt, and Talib on Cooper, points will be hard to come by for the Raiders.

Indianapolis at Seattle
Surely the Seahawks can stop these upstarts. #Alliteration


Monday Night

Washington at Kansas City
Game of the week.